Welcome to The Playbook for Week 12, which kicks off Thursday with the Payments on the Texans.
This column options rating projections, over/unders, win chances, and naturally, simply digestible fantasy recommendation for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This information ought to enable you with all types of decision-making, together with sit/begin, last-minute waiver provides and lineup decisions.
Moreover, we’ve got folded our Shadow Stories, beforehand a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns right here. Utilizing our play-by-play knowledge, we’re in a position to determine defensive schemes and the place every broad receiver and cornerback traces up on every play. By monitoring these WR/CB matchups, together with potential shadow conditions, we are able to supply the perfect fantasy steering strategies every week.
All of this recommendation is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with comparatively normal scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 Ok, 1 D/ST), though I am going to usually point out “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts present all gamers who’ve been projected for at the least 6.0 fantasy factors this week, in addition to all D/STs. “Matchup” is robotically decided utilizing a proprietary metric that components in uncooked and volume-adjusted fantasy factors allowed to every place by the opposing protection this season.
(Editor’s notice: Projections and rankings will align nearly completely, however generally when a projection is shut, a participant is perhaps ranked barely increased or decrease due to different components, together with upside or threat. This column is topic to updates throughout the weekend, though on the very minimal, rankings will probably be up to date on the location and projections will at all times be up to date inside the sport main as much as kickoff.)
BUF-HOU | PIT-CHI | NE-CIN | NYG-DET | MIN-GB | SEA-TEN | IND-KC
NYJ-BAL | CLE-LV | JAX-ARI | PHI-DAL | ATL-NO | TB-LAR | CAR-SF
Projected rating: Payments 24, Texans 24
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, James Cook dinner III, Woody Marks, Nico Collins
Fantasy scoop: Allen is just too good to bench, however expectations needs to be lowered this week on the highway in opposition to an elite Houston protection. Take into account: Allen is averaging 29.6 fantasy PPG at dwelling this season (minimal 19.4) however simply 17.4 PPG on the highway. His weekly highway performances are as follows: 11.8 factors on the Jets (QB24), 15.4 factors on the Falcons (QB18), 23.2 factors on the Panthers (QB8) and 19.3 factors on the Dolphins (QB10).
Moreover, Houston has allowed the fewest fantasy factors, fourth-fewest move yards, sixth-fewest move TDs (10), second-lowest completion fee (58%), second-lowest yards per try (6.1) and 0 dashing TDs to quarterbacks. No quarterback has reached 20 fantasy factors in opposition to the Texans and solely three have hit 14. Allen is a midrange QB1 play with the potential for a dud.
Shadow Report: Downgrade Buffalo’s broad receivers in opposition to a Houston protection that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy factors to receivers, together with the third-fewest to the perimeter. The Texans have held receivers to the bottom catch fee (53%) and third-lowest yards per goal (6.7), and solely three receivers have even reached 13 factors in opposition to them. Khalil Shakir is the one Buffalo receiver price contemplating to your WR3/flex slot, and his ceiling is proscribed on this matchup.
Shadow Report: Collins can count on Christian Benford shadow protection this week. Benford has traveled with Garrett Wilson (9.0 fantasy factors within the recreation), Tyreek Hill (15.9), Chris Olave (11.0), Drake London (31.8), Tetairoa McMillan (16.9), Travis Kelce (10.6) and Emeka Egbuka (9.0) on their perimeter routes this season. The six broad receivers averaged 15.6 fantasy factors, with half of them reaching 15.9. We’ve not been afraid of this matchup all season and will not be right here in Week 12. Collins could be began with confidence.
Over/below: 47.8 (seventh highest)
Win chance: Payments 51% (thirteenth)
Projected rating: Bears 25, Steelers 21
Lineup locks: D’Andre Swift, Jaylen Warren, DK Metcalf, Rome Odunze
Fantasy scoop: Warren departed Sunday’s win after solely 18 snaps on account of harm, and Kenneth Gainwell took benefit. The 2021 fifth-round choose did not do a lot on the bottom (24 yards on 9 carries) however posted a 7-81-2 receiving line on seven targets. Gainwell has performed 60% or extra of the snaps in two video games this season (each on account of Warren accidents) and he scored 29-plus fantasy factors in every outing. In fact, he has failed to attain double-digit fantasy factors in some other recreation, so his Week 12 outlook will rely upon Warren’s well being.
If Warren performs, Gainwell belongs on the bench. If Warren is sidelined, Gainwell will defer some carries to Kaleb Johnson however will probably be properly positioned for 15-plus touches in opposition to a Chicago protection that sits midpack in fantasy factors allowed to RBs however has allowed 5.0 yards per carry (fourth highest) to the place. In that state of affairs, Gainwell will probably be a stable RB2 choice.
Shadow Report: Improve Pittsburgh’s receivers in opposition to a Chicago move protection that has surrendered the second-most touchdowns (14), fourth-highest yards per goal (9.2) and ninth-most fantasy factors to receivers. Chicago is definitely coming off a stable effort in opposition to Minnesota’s receivers however nonetheless sits top-10 in factors allowed to each the perimeter and slot over the previous 4 weeks.
Metcalf has struggled this season whereas usually coping with shadow protection and/or powerful matchups, however he has managed three 16-plus-point fantasy outings and he matched a season excessive with 9 targets final week (4 from Mason Rudolph). Set for maybe his best matchup of the season to this point, Metcalf is within the WR2/3 combine, even with Aaron Rodgers probably sidelined.
Over/below: 45.5 (Tenth)
Win chance: Bears 66% (eighth)
Projected rating: Patriots 32, Bengals 25
Lineup locks: Drake Maye, Chase Brown, TreVeyon Henderson, Tee Higgins, Stefon Diggs
Fantasy scoop: Henderson is crimson sizzling, having adopted up Week 10’s 150-yard, two-TD, 28.0-fantasy-point effort with a 93-yard, three-TD, 32.3-point explosion in Week 11. Henderson’s latest surge has, in fact, been fueled by Rhamondre Stevenson’s absence, but it surely’s truthful to wonder if his sturdy play, which incorporates 87-plus yards in all three video games, will result in a a lot bigger function shifting ahead.
If Stevenson stays sidelined, Henderson is a lineup lock. Even when Stevenson returns, each backs are viable RB2 choices in opposition to a horrific Bengals run protection that has allowed essentially the most dashing yards (185.6 yards per recreation), scrimmage yards, touchdowns (1.5) and fantasy factors (34.1) to working backs. An almost-unbelievable 13 backs have already scored 15-plus fantasy factors in opposition to them this season.
Shadow Report: With Ja’Marr Chase suspended for this recreation, count on Higgins to attract shadow protection from Christian Gonzalez. New England’s prime nook shadowed Jerry Jeudy, Drake London and Emeka Egbuka over the previous month. Gonzalez held Jeudy with out a single catch, did properly when aligned on London (London nonetheless scored 38.8 factors within the recreation, however almost all was in opposition to different defenders) and wasn’t pretty much as good in opposition to Egbuka (23.5 fantasy factors scored within the recreation). Not like London and Egbuka, Higgins would not transfer into the slot fairly often (12% to be precise) and thus will see Gonzalez on almost all of his routes. Higgins figures to see extra targets with Chase out, however that could be offset a bit by this matchup.
Over/below: 56.6 (highest)
Win chance: Patriots 75% (fifth)
Projected rating: Lions 30, Giants 23
Lineup locks: Jaxson Dart, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Wan’Dale Robinson, Jameson Williams
Fantasy scoop: With Sam LaPorta on IR, Brock Wright stepped in because the Lions’ featured tight finish in Week 11. Wright was extra concerned than he was when LaPorta missed Week 11 of final season, this time enjoying 82% of the snaps and dealing with a career-high seven targets. Wright’s 19.4% goal share within the recreation was truly a hair above LaPorta’s 18.6% share throughout Weeks 1-10. Wright ran 25 routes, tied for third on the group behind solely St. Brown and Williams. Wright was in a position to flip the seven targets into solely 8 yards, however that feels a bit fluky contemplating Jared Goff struggled with 14 completions on 37 makes an attempt in opposition to an excellent Eagles protection.
We do not need to get too carried away right here, as Wright has produced double-digit fantasy factors in simply six of 71 profession video games, however he has additionally by no means been requested to play such a considerable offensive function. Wright is not a should add, however he is very a lot within the TE2 combine in a significantly better matchup this week. The Giants sit top-12 in passing yards and TDs allowed.
Over/below: 53.4 (third)
Win chance: Lions 73% (sixth)
Projected rating: Packers 27, Vikings 19
Lineup locks: Emanuel Wilson, Justin Jefferson, Romeo Doubs, Jordan Addison
Fantasy scoop: Josh Jacobs (knee) is doubtful for this week’s recreation and, if he is sidelined, Wilson ought to discover his manner into your beginning lineup. With Jacobs (who has but to overlook a recreation since becoming a member of Inexperienced Bay) restricted to 11 snaps on Sunday, Wilson stepped in and dealt with 11 carries and one goal on 36 snaps (17 routes). Chris Brooks was barely concerned off the bench, totaling just one keep on 5 snaps (zero routes). Brooks was extra concerned final season — primarily as a move catcher — however it seems that he is clearly behind Wilson on the depth chart right here in 2025. Wilson, a 2023 UDFA, has performed stable ball when referred to as on, averaging 4.6 yards per keep on 185 profession makes an attempt, whereas additionally including 174 yards on 36 targets. If Jacobs is out, Wilson is a stable RB2 play.
Over/below: 45.5 (eleventh)
Win chance: Packers 77% (4th)
Projected rating: Seahawks 26, Titans 15
Lineup lock: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Fantasy scoop: Calvin Ridley (fibula) is completed for the season, which solidifies Elic Ayomanor, Chimere Dike and Van Jefferson because the Titans’ prime receivers shifting ahead. Ridley had performed solely seven snaps throughout Tennessee’s previous six video games on account of harm, with the group’s WR utilization as follows: Ayomanor (244 snaps, 30 targets), Jefferson (228 snaps, 28 targets), Dike (174 snaps, 20 targets) and all others mixed (97 snaps, 10 targets).
Dike, whose numbers are deflated a bit after he left Sunday’s recreation injured, paces the group with 9.4 fantasy PPG throughout the stretch, with Ayomanor (6.1) and Jefferson (7.1) additionally not significantly productive. Dike did flash with a pair of 16-plus-point video games throughout Weeks 7 and eight, so there’s some hope for him as a deep-league flex, however he’ll be powerful to belief in an offense that has scored a horrific 11 touchdowns in 10 video games.
Shadow Report: We have been selecting on the short-handed Titans secondary for some time now and we’ll do it once more right here in Week 12. After permitting 24.2 factors to Nico Collins on Sunday, Tennessee has allowed the seventh-most fantasy factors to receivers this season, together with the third-most over anticipated. Tennessee is permitting the best catch fee (72%) and third-highest yards per goal (9.2) to the place. Smith-Njigba, Cooper Kupp and Rashid Shaheed could be upgraded in opposition to Darrell Baker Jr. (who might shadow JSN), Marcus Harris, Jalyn Armour-Davis and Samuel Womack III.
Over/below: 41.2 (twelfth)
Win chance: Seahawks 85% (highest)
Projected rating: Chiefs 28, Colts 27
Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Daniel Jones, Jonathan Taylor, Rashee Rice, Michael Pittman Jr., Tyler Warren, Travis Kelce
Fantasy scoop: Alec Pierce is on tempo for a profession yr and all of a sudden finds himself on the WR3 radar after posting consecutive 17-plus-point fantasy outings previous to the Colts’ Week 11 bye. Pierce’s early-season manufacturing wasn’t overly spectacular (below 11 factors in 4 straight video games to open the season), however he is averaging 8.8 targets, 91.5 yards and 14.9 fantasy PPG in 4 video games since. The fifth-year receiver sits thirty fourth amongst WRs in fantasy PPG, and that quantity might be even higher if he discovered the top zone extra usually. Pierce has one TD (2.1 xTD), which is a little bit of a regression-to-the-mean overcorrection after he scored seven occasions (4.2 xTD) in 2024. Pierce paces certified receivers in yards per reception (20.9) and aDOT (20.1), which is a task that units him up for giant performs.
Then again, Colts receivers could have their palms full this week in opposition to a Chiefs protection that has allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy factors to receivers and solely 9 passing TDs on the season. Solely three receivers have hit 14.5 fantasy factors in opposition to them, and two had been in Week 1. The Colts’ elite offense with 4 groups on a bye is sufficient to maintain Pierce, Pittman and Josh Downs on the fantasy radar this week, however the bust threat is increased than traditional.
Over/below: 54.4 (2nd)
Win chance: Chiefs 54% (Tenth)
Projected rating: Ravens 29, Jets 18
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Breece Corridor, Zay Flowers
Fantasy scoop: Tyrod Taylor is about to switch Justin Fields because the Jets’ beginning quarterback, and his presence ought to add a little bit little bit of juice to the passing recreation. Taylor has performed just one full recreation this season — Week 3 in opposition to the Buccaneers — and threw for 197 yards and two TDs on 36 makes an attempt, including 48 yards on eight carries. The move try quantity is most notable, as Fields averaged 25.8 makes an attempt in his seven full video games and reached 33 solely as soon as. With Garrett Wilson on IR, Corridor is the one factor near a lineup lock on this offense, with Mason Taylor a extra enticing TE2 play. The Jets shook up their WR room big-time final week (John Metchie III, Isaiah Williams, Tyler Johnson and Adonai Mitchell every performed 28-plus snaps). None needs to be in lineups for the time being.
Shadow Report: Improve Baltimore’s receivers in opposition to the Sauce Gardner-less Jets move protection. Secondary receivers had already fared properly in opposition to New York previous to Gardner’s departure, and now we’re beginning to see No. 1 receivers carry out at the next stage. That features Jerry Jeudy’s 19.8 factors in Week 10 and Stefon Diggs’ 19.5 factors final week. Flowers is the first benefactor, and Rashod Bateman (if again from harm) is a noteworthy deep sleeper.
Over/below: 47.4 (eighth)
Win chance: Ravens 85% (2nd)
Projected rating: Browns 18, Raiders 15
Lineup locks: Ashton Jeanty, Quinshon Judkins, Brock Bowers
Fantasy scoop: Harold Fannin Jr. has dealt with at the least 20% of Cleveland’s targets in 5 consecutive video games, however the heavy utilization has but to permit constant fantasy manufacturing. Fannin’s two greatest fantasy outings did come throughout this stretch (15.1 factors in Week 6 and 18.4 factors in Week 8), however he fell wanting 8.5 factors within the different three video games. Fannin sits top-seven amongst tight ends in targets and catches, however Cleveland’s weak offense has him twelfth in yards and twenty third in touchdowns (two). Particularly with David Njoku nonetheless within the combine, Fannin is not more than a fringe TE1, particularly this week in opposition to a Raiders protection that has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy factors to tight ends.
Over/below: 32.7 (lowest)
Win chance: Browns 58% (ninth)
Projected rating: Cardinals 23, Jaguars 23
Lineup locks: Michael Wilson, Trey McBride
Fantasy scoop: Is the Bhayshul Tuten emergence lastly upon us? It positive appeared prefer it throughout Week 11’s dominant win over the Chargers. Previous to Tuten’s departure early within the fourth quarter with an harm, Jacksonville’s RB utilization was as follows: Tuten (22 snaps, 15 carries for 74 yards, 1 TD), Travis Etienne Jr. (25 snaps, 12 carries for 47 yards, 1 TD) and LeQuint Allen Jr. (4 snaps, 0 carries).
Regardless of lacking many of the fourth quarter, Tuten posted profession highs in snap share (32%) and touches (15). Tuten’s sturdy play suggests a bigger share of the workload might be so as, but it surely’s vital to notice that he benefited drastically from recreation script (Jacksonville referred to as 45 runs), and that is very prone to stay a committee. Etienne has 859 yards in 10 video games and is averaging 4.7 yards per carry, and Allen is a passing-down specialist. Tuten stays with out a lot work within the move recreation (11 targets in 10 video games, together with zero in Week 11). An Arizona protection that has allowed 13 touchdowns to RBs (fourth most) presents an excellent Week 12 matchup, however Tuten is not more than a deep-league flex lottery ticket till he cements a bigger function.
Over/below: 45.7 (ninth)
Win chance: Cardinals 51% (twelfth)
Projected rating: Eagles 26, Cowboys 25
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, Javonte Williams, CeeDee Lamb, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, George Pickens, Dallas Goedert, Jake Ferguson
Fantasy scoop: Prescott will probably be a dangerous fantasy begin this week in opposition to a surging Eagles protection that held him to 188 yards, zero touchdowns and seven.8 fantasy factors when these groups met in Week 1. Prescott did warmth up for some time after that recreation (22-plus fantasy factors in 5 of his subsequent six), however he has been increase/bust as of late, with fewer than 16 factors in opposition to Denver and Arizona previous to beating up on the Raiders (24.3) on Monday. The Eagles, in the meantime, have allowed simply two QB fantasy finishes higher than twelfth and appear to be peaking defensively. They’ve allowed a league-low 57% completion fee and have held each Jordan Love (7.8) and Jared Goff (12.1) to poor fantasy days over the previous two weeks. Prescott is, at greatest, a fringe beginning choice.
Shadow Report: Quinyon Mitchell is prone to shadow Pickens this week, as he did when these groups confronted off within the season opener. Throughout that recreation, Mitchell aligned in opposition to Pickens on 16 of his 24 routes, together with 16 of twenty-two on the perimeter. Pickens was held to fifteen yards on three targets (3.5 fantasy factors), whereas Lamb benefited from going through off with Adoree’ Jackson (110 yards and 18.0 fantasy factors on 10 targets). Expectations needs to be lowered for Pickens raised a bit for Lamb (although the Eagles’ protection is enjoying properly).
Over/below: 51 (4th)
Win chance: Eagles 52% (eleventh)
Projected rating: Saints 20, Falcons 20
Lineup locks: Bijan Robinson, Chris Olave
Fantasy scoop: The Atlanta offense is headed for a shakeup with each Michael Penix Jr. (IR) and Drake London sidelined this week. Coincidentally, we obtained a take a look at this setup in Week 8 when each had been out in opposition to Miami. In that recreation — a 34-10 loss — Kirk Cousins struggled, with 173 yards and 0 TDs on 31 move makes an attempt, Robinson was held to 48 yards on 12 touches (Tyler Allgeier scored the group’s solely landing) and no broad receiver cleared 31 yards.
The one silver lining was a robust effort by Kyle Pitts Sr., who dealt with 9 targets (his second-highest whole of the season) and matched a profession excessive with 9 catches. Pitts noticed a 30% goal share in that recreation and figures to be very busy in opposition to the Saints. He’d be a lineup lock if we had extra confidence in Cousins. Darnell Mooney did not present properly within the Week 8 recreation (11 yards on 4 targets), however he is the highest receiver for Atlanta, and that is sufficient for WR3 consideration in opposition to a Saints protection that has allowed the seventh-most passing TDs (18) and the eighth-highest EPA in opposition to the move.
Over/nder: 39.7 (thirteenth)
Win chance: Saints 50% (lowest)
Projected rating: Rams 29, Buccaneers 20
Lineup locks: Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Emeka Egbuka, Davante Adams
Fantasy scoop: Sean Tucker got here out of nowhere to ship 140 yards and three touchdowns on 21 touches in opposition to the Payments on Sunday. The spectacular exhibiting might result in extra work for Tucker shifting ahead, however there are a number of components that counsel he will not discover his technique to constant fantasy worth. For starters, he beat up on maybe the league’s worst run protection (Buffalo has allowed the second-most dashing yards, most TDs and second-most fantasy factors to RBs). Second, Bucky Irving remained out for that recreation and has an actual shot to return right here in Week 12.
Third, we have seen this earlier than: Tucker exploded for 192 yards and two scores on 17 touches in Week 6 of final season previous to totaling 39 touches, 204 yards and one TD over the ultimate 12 video games of the season. Lastly, even when Irving stays out this week, Tucker could have a a lot stiffer problem in opposition to a Rams protection that has allowed simply three touchdowns and the third-fewest fantasy factors to RBs this season.
Maybe the Bucs shock the NFL world and make Tucker their clear lead again, Rico Dowdle-style, however that appears unlikely with Irving and Rachaad White within the combine. Tucker ought to stay on benches until Irving stays out. Within the latter state of affairs, he’ll be on the RB2/flex radar.
Shadow Report: Emmanuel Forbes Jr. figures to shadow Egbuka this week, as he has in opposition to Rashid Shaheed (Shaheed scored 11.8 fantasy factors within the recreation), Jauan Jennings (19.1) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (19.5) throughout the Rams’ previous three video games. The Rams have been distinctive in opposition to the move (second-lowest EPA allowed) however face fairly a little bit of quantity (fifth-most move makes an attempt confronted), which is why they sit top-10 in catches and yards allowed to receivers. It additionally helps clarify the stable numbers by the aforementioned trio of receivers. It will not be essentially the most environment friendly day on the workplace, however Egbuka ought to see sufficient quantity to provide at his traditional WR1/2 stage.
Over/below: 48.9 (sixth)
Win chance: Rams 78% (third)
Projected rating: 49ers 28, Panthers 22
Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, Rico Dowdle, Tetairoa McMillan, Jauan Jennings, George Kittle
Fantasy scoop: Ricky Pearsall returned from harm on Sunday — his first recreation motion since Week 4. The outcomes had been poor (zero yards on three targets), however the excellent news is that he was instantly the group’s No. 2 receiver, working a route on 85% of the move performs. Pearsall was productive early within the season (100-plus yards in two of his three full video games), and now wholesome, he ought to rapidly return to fantasy relevance in an offense that has scored four-plus touchdowns in three straight video games. He is on the flex radar in opposition to a Carolina protection that has allowed solely six TDs to receivers, however the Tenth-highest EPA in opposition to the move.
Shadow Report: Improve Carolina’s receivers in opposition to a 49ers protection that, after permitting 33.5 fantasy factors to Michael Wilson final week, now sits top-five in receptions, yards, fantasy factors and catch fee allowed to receivers. The 49ers have been worse in opposition to the slot than the perimeter this season, although they’ve struggled in opposition to each over the previous month. That is notable as McMillan aligns out broad 82% of the time. He is in a great place in opposition to Niners boundary corners Renardo Inexperienced and Deommodore Lenoir.
Over/below: 50.3 (fifth)
Win chance: 49ers 71% (seventh)
