Annually, I make a daring prediction for each crew as a part of our MLB season preview. These aren’t wacky, unthinkable predictions — like a catcher hitting 60 dwelling runs or a hitter reaching base 9 occasions in a World Sequence recreation or the World Sequence being determined by the size of the lead a runner will get off third base. No, who may predict any of that taking place?
These had been daring — however real looking — predictions for the 2025 season. Let’s return and grade each to see how I did — after which spin it ahead to subsequent yr.
The prediction: Paul Skenes would not simply win the Cy Younger Award — he has the most effective season ever for a Pirates starter (within the stay ball period, since 1920).
Cy Younger Award? Verify. Highest WAR for a Pirates starter since 1920? Verify. Lowest ERA by a Pirates starter since 1920? Verify. Nicely performed, Mr. Skenes, nicely performed.
Grade: A+
Looking forward to 2026: It will not be straightforward to prime 7.7 WAR and a 1.97 ERA, however Skenes can do it. He can definitely enhance upon his 187⅔ innings because the Pirates nonetheless held him again, letting him attain 100 pitches in simply eight of his 31 begins. With just a few extra begins on 4 days of relaxation and extra innings, a 9- or 10-WAR season is feasible.
The prediction: Bryan Woo would be the finest starter on the Mariners.
Nailed it. Woo went 15-7 with a 2.94 ERA and 4.2 WAR – double the two.1 of fellow rotation members Logan Gilbert and Luis Castillo. Woo, who completed fifth within the Cy Younger voting, additionally set an MLB file when he pitched at the least six innings in every of his first 25 begins of the season. Sadly, he injured his pectoral muscle in his ultimate begin of the common season, missed the ALDS and was solely in a position to pitch out of the bullpen within the crew’s ALCS loss to Toronto.
Grade: A+
Looking forward to 2026: The Mariners could have excessive hopes after ending one win wanting their first World Sequence look. With higher well being from Gilbert, George Kirby and Bryce Miller and one other massive season from Woo, the Mariners’ rotation can get again to its 2024 standing as top-of-the-line within the recreation.
The prediction: Gavin Williams will lead the rotation in ERA and WAR.
Williams completed 12-5 with a 3.06 ERA and three.8 WAR — simply main the rotation in each classes.
Grade: A+
Looking forward to 2026: Williams definitely delivered a breakout season, using top-of-the-line curveballs within the recreation (batters hit simply .116 towards it). He tweaked his slider, turning it right into a sweeper, and that turned one other efficient pitch. If he can minimize down on his walks — he led the majors with 83 — he can take one other step ahead.
The prediction: Riley Greene turns into simply the tenth Tigers outfielder to hit 30 dwelling runs and turns into the primary Tigers outfielder to make consecutive All-Star appearances since Magglio Ordonez in 2006-07.
Greene hit 36 dwelling runs and did make the All-Star crew once more, so I nailed each predictions. His WAR, nevertheless, fell from 5.4 to 2.2 as his defensive metrics on Baseball-Reference had been a lot worse and his OBP dropped from .348 to .313. It was a bizarre combine, as he additionally set a Tigers file with 201 strikeouts and his stroll price fell from the 83rd percentile to the thirty fourth.
Grade: A
Looking forward to 2026: Whereas Greene drove in 111 runs, he slumped to a .218 common and .694 OPS within the second half and hit simply .185 total in high-leverage conditions. His pace metrics declined considerably as nicely. The facility numbers had been nice, however Greene must get again to being a greater all-around participant.
The prediction: Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu and Jarren Duran all win Gold Gloves.
Shut! No outfield trio had ever performed this, and whereas Rafaela received his first in middle discipline and Abreu received his second in proper discipline, Cleveland’s Steven Kwan received once more in left discipline. Duran had led all outfielders in defensive runs saved in 2024 and had one other good season within the discipline, however he fell off sufficient that Kwan received for the fourth yr in a row.
Grade: B+
Looking forward to 2026: Enter Roman Anthony. The excellent rookie performed 71 video games in 2025 and will likely be enjoying every single day in 2026. The Crimson Sox may rotate the 4 outfielders by the DH function, though they’ve Masataka Yoshida there as nicely. They may play Rafaela at second base, however that is a waste of his protection in middle discipline. It may result in an offseason commerce.
The prediction: Juan Soto units a membership file for OPS, and Pete Alonso breaks his personal membership file in RBIs.
With a .921 OPS, Soto fell wanting Mike Piazza’s mark of 1.012, though he was nonetheless a top-three MVP finalist after hitting a career-high 43 dwelling runs and main the Nationwide League in on-base share. Alonso completed with 126 RBIs, an enormous enchancment from 2024 when he drove in 88, however he simply missed his membership file of 131 set in 2022.
Grade: B
Looking forward to 2026: Alonso is a free agent and can search — and positively obtain — an even bigger deal than the two-year, $54 million contract he signed with the Mets final offseason (that included a participant opt-out). Whereas he nonetheless looks as if the fitting match for the Mets, the entrance workplace would possibly look to place cash towards the pitching employees as a substitute.
The prediction: Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte each end within the prime 10 of the MVP voting and the Diamondbacks lead the majors in runs for the second straight season.
What a irritating yr for the Diamondbacks. They did get two gamers within the prime 10 of MVP voting and one was Carroll, however the different was shortstop Geraldo Perdomo (who led all NL place gamers with a 7.0 WAR). Marte had a strong 4.4-WAR season and made the All-Star crew. Arizona completed sixth in runs scored (and had been fourth earlier than dealing Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez on the commerce deadline).
Grade: B
Looking forward to 2026: With holes to fill within the rotation and the bullpen, plus first base, Marte’s identify has popped up in commerce rumors. It may very well be associated to experiences in July that he misplaced help within the clubhouse after lacking three video games following the All-Star break when he flew dwelling to the Dominican Republic. He was positioned on the restricted listing for 2 video games whereas absent and benched for the third after returning — although did apologize for the absence.
The prediction: Wyatt Langford has a 30/30 season and finishes within the prime 10 of the MVP voting.
This one is fascinating. Langford had a 22/22 season in dwelling runs and stolen bases — so did not come all that near 30/30 — and did not crack the highest 10 in MVP voting, however he did end with 5.6 WAR, which ranked tied for eighth amongst American League place gamers. A part of the excessive WAR was his excellent protection, but in addition that, for no matter cause, Globe Life Area performed as an excessive pitcher’s park in 2025, so Langford completed with a wonderful 127 OPS+.
Grade: B-
Looking forward to 2026: Langford performed 134 video games, so if he can rise up to 150 and if Globe Life returns to extra of a impartial park, 30/30 will likely be on the radar. If he can minimize down on his strikeouts — sixteenth percentile — then we’ll see even greater offensive numbers throughout the board.
The prediction: The Angels could have six 20-homer hitters … however nonetheless lose 95 video games.
The Angels did hit a whole lot of dwelling runs, rating fourth within the majors, though simply 4 gamers reached 20 with a fifth at 19. And, hey, they did not lose 95 video games! They solely misplaced 90.
Grade: B-
Looking forward to 2026: The trade-off for these dwelling runs? The Angels led the majors in strikeouts. And their .225 crew batting common was the worst as nicely. Consequently, they completed twenty fifth in runs scored, regardless of all the house runs. The Angels have to diversify their offense, however there is not a lot assistance on the best way from the minors. Let’s examine what occurs in free company.
The prediction: Kyle Tucker hits 40 dwelling runs, steals 30 bases and finishes second to Shohei Ohtani within the MVP voting.
On the finish of June, Tucker was hitting .291/.395/.537 with 17 dwelling runs and 20 stolen bases — on tempo for 33 dwelling runs and 39 stolen bases. On the time, he ranked third within the NL in WAR, simply barely behind Ohtani and teammate Pete Crow-Armstrong. He was on observe to complete second within the MVP voting, given PCA was prone to regress. However Tucker had suffered a hairline fracture in his hand, which, in flip, affected his manufacturing, after which he suffered a calf pressure in September. He completed with 22 dwelling runs and 23 steals.
Grade: C+
Looking forward to 2026: Tucker is a free agent — he’s No. 1 in our rating of this offseason’s prime free brokers. He’s projected to get an enormous contract from some crew, however in all probability not the Cubs. They’ve younger outfield choices similar to Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcantara, plus Seiya Suzuki, who can DH or play proper discipline, and wish to deal with their rotation.
The prediction: Vinnie Pasquantino hits with .300 with 25 dwelling runs and makes the All-Star crew.
Pasquantino did escape his finest season, hitting .264 with 32 dwelling runs and 113 RBIs, though he didn’t make the All-Star crew as his energy surged with 17 dwelling runs in 64 video games after the All-Star break. Whereas he had a reasonably low BABIP of .271, he matched his “anticipated” common of .263.
Grade: C+
Looking forward to 2026: Pasquantino has become a dead-pull hitter — he pulled all 32 of his dwelling runs — and whereas he retains the strikeouts down (83rd percentile), he in all probability will not flip right into a .300 hitter along with his fly-ball-oriented strategy. His defensive metrics are weak and he is gradual, however he has a case because the No. 2 first baseman within the AL.
The prediction: All 5 starters throw at the least 162 innings and end with an ERA underneath 3.50.
The 2006 White Sox stay secure. The one pitcher to satisfy each standards was Cristopher Sanchez; Ranger Suarez (3.20 ERA, 157 innings) and Zack Wheeler (2.71 ERA, 149 innings) simply missed. Jesus Luzardo pitched sufficient innings, however his ERA was a little bit excessive (3.92), whereas Aaron Nola was terrible with a 6.01 ERA. The Phillies’ rotation did lead the majors in FanGraphs WAR and ranked second in ERA.
Grade: C
Looking forward to 2026: The rotation is in a little bit of flux. Suarez is a free agent, Wheeler will try and return from thoracic outlet surgical procedure, and Nola must bounce again.
The prediction: Spencer Schwellenbach will end within the prime 5 of the Cy Younger voting.
This regarded fairly good by June 28, when Schwellenbach was 7-4 with a 3.09 ERA, 108 strikeouts and simply 18 walks in 110⅔ innings. He ranked tied for seventh within the NL in FanGraphs WAR on the time, only one good begin exterior the highest 5. Sadly, he did not pitch once more after being recognized with a small fracture in his elbow.
Grade: C
Looking forward to 2026: Schwellenbach has already began a throwing program and is anticipated to be a part of the rotation subsequent season. With a wholesome Schwellenbach, a wholesome Chris Sale and an improved Spencer Strider, the rotation may very well be adequate to get the Braves again within the playoff image.
The prediction: Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez and Spencer Arrighetti will win 45 video games and mix for 13 WAR.
Nicely, two out of three is not unhealthy. Brown went 12-9 with a 2.43 ERA and was a Cy Younger finalist. Valdez was strong once more, going 13-11 with a 3.66 ERA. Arrighetti, who had completed sturdy in 2024, broke his thumb in early April — he was hit by a line drive in batting follow whereas enjoying catch within the outfield. He returned in August, struggled and completed the season on the injured listing with elbow irritation. The trio mixed for 26 wins and 10.0 WAR.
Grade: C-
Looking forward to 2026: Valdez is a free agent, so if the Astros do not re-sign him — a possible state of affairs — they are going to be relying on Arrighetti, Cristian Javier and Lance McCullers Jr. to make greater than the 28 mixed begins they did in 2025. Ryan Gusto, Brandon Walter and AJ Blubaugh, all rookies in 2025, also needs to issue into the rotation combine.
The prediction: Brent Rooker hits 53 dwelling runs and edges out Aaron Decide for the house run title.
OK, OK … as a substitute, can we name up the clip from the “Baseball Tonight” podcast after I predict Nick Kurtz will win Rookie of the 12 months? (Spoiler: He did.) No? The pondering right here was Sacramento would possibly play as an incredible hitter’s park. As an alternative, it was near impartial and the A’s homered barely extra typically on the street. Rooker completed with 30 dwelling runs.
Grade: C-
Looking forward to 2026: Now, Kurtz … he may be a participant who can win the house run title after mashing 36 in simply 117 video games. With Kurtz main the best way, the A’s are going to have one of the vital thrilling lineups in baseball in 2026.
The prediction: CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia Jr. each attain 25 dwelling runs.
Solely six center infield combos had performed that since 2010. It is nonetheless six. Abrams hit 19 dwelling runs and Garcia 16 — one fewer from 2024 for Abrams and two for Garcia. Garcia noticed his batting common drop 30 factors, leading to a 61-point drop in OPS.
Grade: D+
Looking forward to 2026: The Nationals had been speculated to be constructing round James Wooden, Dylan Crews and the 2 infielders, however solely Wooden met expectations in 2025 — and even he slumped within the second half after an enormous first half. Possibly a brand new supervisor, teaching employees and entrance workplace can get extra out of this group.
The prediction: The Marlins shortly fall out of the race in April and commerce Sandy Alcantara to the Athletics.
Nicely, a part of that was proper: The Marlins had been 12-18 on the finish of April and already 8.5 video games out of first place. Nevertheless, Alcantara, coming back from Tommy John surgical procedure, received off to a horrific begin — 8.31 ERA on the finish of April, 8.47 on the finish of Could — and was untradable, though his identify did nonetheless pop up on the commerce deadline.
Grade: D+
Looking forward to 2026: With a significantly better second half — a 3.33 ERA over his ultimate 13 begins — Alcantara’s identify is close to the highest of the offseason “almost certainly to be traded” listing. You realize who may use a starter? The Athletics!
The prediction: The White Sox lose 110 video games, matching the 1962-63 Mets as the one crew to lose at the least 110 in consecutive seasons.
OK, high quality … I additionally predicted the White Sox would commerce Luis Robert Jr. No extra commerce predictions for me! Like Alcantara, Robert was so unhealthy that his worth tanked. The White Sox had been additionally a little bit higher than their preseason forecast, though they nonetheless completed with 102 losses.
Grade: D+
Looking forward to 2026: The White Sox picked up Robert’s $20 million choice for 2026 — hoping he can discover his 2023 stage of manufacturing. However after two unhealthy years on the plate and an incapacity to stay wholesome, that’s rising more and more much less doubtless.
The prediction: Jackson Chourio will end with a .900 OPS.
This was an aggressive prediction, however Chourio had posted a .915 OPS in 63 second-half video games in 2024. He completed 2025 with a slash line of .270/.308/.463 and a .770 OPS that was 21 factors decrease than his rookie season.
Grade: D
Looking forward to 2026: Chourio’s excessive chase price (eighth percentile) was a key cause he failed to enhance upon his rookie season, because it led to an excessive amount of comfortable contact, even with a league-average strikeout price. He is nonetheless simply getting into his age-22 season, so there’s time to enhance, however the probability he turns into an enormous star has dimmed a little bit.
The prediction: Elly De La Cruz will hit 30 dwelling runs, steal 80 bases and end within the prime 5 of the MVP voting.
Nicely, that was a letdown. After hitting 25 dwelling runs and stealing 67 bases in 2024 in his age-22 season, De La Cruz fell off to 22 dwelling runs and 37 stolen bases, regardless of enjoying all 162 video games. Most shockingly, he fell right into a horrific energy hunch, homering simply as soon as in a 74-game span from late June by early September.
Grade: D
Looking forward to 2026: What occurred right here? After his 5.2-WAR season in 2024, De La Cruz appeared prepared for even greater issues. As an alternative, he regressed. Of curiosity: Maybe trying to minimize down on his strikeouts (which he did), De La Cruz’s bat pace declined from the left facet and his swing size shortened. However it did not result in higher outcomes.
The prediction: Michael King turns into simply the third Padres pitcher to win 20 video games.
Ahh, pitcher predictions — typically doomed to fail resulting from damage threat. King was nice by the top of April (4-1 with a 2.09 ERA) however then received injured in the course of Could, made one begin in early August after which did not pitch once more till September. He completed 5-3 with a 3.44 ERA in 15 begins.
Grade: D
Looking forward to 2026: King is a free agent. Dylan Stop is a free agent. Yu Darvish is already out for the season. The Padres’ rotation goes to wish an enormous offseason makeover.
The prediction: The Rockies will find yourself with two All-Stars: outfielder Brenton Doyle and reliever Victor Vodnik.
LOL. The Rockies had only one All-Star, though at the least catcher Hunter Goodman was a deserving one (he hit 31 dwelling runs and received a Silver Slugger award). Doyle hit .233 with 15 dwelling runs, and Vodnik had a 3.02 ERA and 10 saves.
Grade: D
Looking forward to 2026: The Rockies in all probability will not have two All-Stars.
The prediction: The Cardinals keep within the NL Central race till the ultimate week of the season — with 4 rookies within the rotation.
Nicely, technically, the Cardinals had been nonetheless alive within the wild-card race getting into the ultimate week, sitting 4 video games behind the Reds and Mets. The 4 rookies I discussed — Michael McGreevy, Quinn Mathews, Tink Therefore and Cooper Hjerpe — made little impression, nevertheless, with solely McGreevy (16 begins) even showing within the majors in 2025.
Grade: D-
Looking forward to 2026: The premise right here was appropriate: The Cardinals did not have an excellent rotation. Mathews was the highest prospect getting into the season however struggled along with his management in Triple-A. Therefore had a few accidents and made simply eight begins within the minors. Hjerpe had Tommy John surgical procedure in April and did not pitch in any respect. The rotation will want some assist.
The prediction: Samuel Basallo turns into the common DH within the second half and hits 15 dwelling runs.
Basallo did finally hit his method out of Triple-A, making his debut for the Orioles on Aug. 17, just some days after turning 21. He struggled massive time, nevertheless, hitting .165/.229/.330 with 4 dwelling runs in 31 video games.
Grade: D-
Looking forward to 2026: Basallo stays one of many prime prospects within the recreation and his rookie standing is unbroken. Whereas he scuffled within the majors, he hit .270/.377/.589 with 23 dwelling runs in 76 video games at Triple-A. Whether or not he’ll proceed to catch stays a query, however he can hit.
The prediction: The Yankees end 80-82 for his or her first dropping season since 1992.
Oops. The reasoning right here was that with out Gerrit Cole and with Luis Gil sidelined for a number of months, the Yankees may be in bother. Nicely, in fact, Trent Grisham and Cody Bellinger mixed for 63 dwelling runs and eight.6 WAR, Aaron Decide had one other dominant MVP season, the rotation was high quality with Max Fried, Carlos Rodon and rookie Cam Schlittler, and the Yankees received 94 video games.
Grade: F
Looking forward to 2026: With Cole returning and Gil and Schlittler round for full seasons, this initiatives as an excellent rotation. Grisham and Bellinger are free brokers, nevertheless, so the Yankees must fill middle discipline — maybe with rookie Spencer Jones, if they do not re-sign one of many two free brokers.
The prediction: The Twins could have the most effective bullpen within the majors, with Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax each posting sub-2.00 ERAs.
Duran simply missed, with a 2.06 ERA. However Jax had a 4.23 ERA, though a 2.51 FIP. In fact, the larger story right here: Duran completed the season with the Phillies and Jax with the Rays (and Louis Varland, who had a 2.02 ERA with Minnesota, with the Blue Jays). In the long run, the Twins completed twenty sixth in bullpen ERA and twenty eighth in win chance added — though tied for sixth in FanGraphs WAR. That is an odd combine, mainly suggesting Twins relievers had good peripheral stats however did not stop runs or pitch nicely in high-leverage conditions.
Grade: F
Looking forward to 2026: After buying and selling their prime three relievers, the Twins must rebuild the again finish of their bullpen. It is unclear if these gamers are at present on the roster. Journeyman right-hander Justin Topa received 4 of the crew’s eight saves after the deadline dump. Cole Sands can be one other late-inning choice.
The prediction: Bryce Eldridge will likely be referred to as up early within the season and lead the crew in dwelling runs.
Nope. Eldridge injured his wrist in spring coaching, missed the primary month of the minor league season and eventually made his main league debut in September (going 3-for-28 with 13 strikeouts and no dwelling runs). He had surgical procedure after the season to take away a bone spur from his wrist.
Grade: F
Looking forward to 2026: Eldridge remains to be simply 21 and mashed 25 dwelling runs in 102 video games within the minors, so the 6-foot-7 slugger stays a prime prospect. With Rafael Devers within the combine because the doable full-time first baseman, the Giants can play it a little bit extra conservatively with Eldridge, ensure that the wrist is wholesome and provides him a few months in Triple-A. His future as a possible elite energy bat stays in play.
The prediction: Curtis Mead produces the primary 4-WAR season by a participant born in Australia.
Keep in mind the outdated rule: By no means purchase into spring coaching hype or statistics. Mead had a sizzling spring and began at first base on Opening Day, however the bat by no means received going and the Rays ended up buying and selling him to the White Sox on the commerce deadline. He completed at .233/.291/.321, batting 264 occasions in a utility function. Worth: minus-0.2 WAR.
Grade: F
Looking forward to 2026: The hype Mead had as a prospect has light. He is nonetheless simply 25 and the White Sox do have a gap at first base, so he’ll be within the combine to win that job.
The prediction: The bottom crew ERA+ of the stay ball period (since 1920).
This appeared affordable contemplating the three lowest marks on this class belonged to the 2020 Dodgers (146), the 2022 Dodgers (145) and 2021 Dodgers (140). With Shohei Ohtani returning to the mound, plus the free agent additions of Blake Snell, Roki Sasaki, Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates, the Dodgers’ pitching appeared deeper than ever. As an alternative, it was mediocre — at the least till the postseason — and the Dodgers completed simply tenth within the majors with a 106 ERA+.
Grade: F
Looking forward to 2026: All the important thing pitchers will likely be again, and assuming extra quantity from the likes of Ohtani, Snell and Tyler Glasnow, plus enchancment from the bullpen, I simply would possibly make this prediction once more.
The prediction: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is traded … to Seattle or Milwaukee.
Nicely, that is about as mistaken as you will get. The Blue Jays, in fact, signed Guerrero to that $500 million extension a few week after the season began. Additionally they weren’t out of the race on the commerce deadline, as I additionally predicted. My lawyer provides up this protection: (1) These extensions NEVER occur after the season has began for a participant one yr away free company; (2) George Springer? Ernie Clement? Nathan Lukes? No one noticed these seasons coming; (3) The Mariners (Josh Naylor) and Brewers (Andrew Vaughn) each traded for first basemen. Apparently, the jury has rejected this protection.
Grade: F-
Looking forward to 2026: Guerrero was excellent within the common season, though his batting common dropped from .323 to .292 and his slugging share from .544 to .467. However he crushed it within the postseason, hitting .397/.494/.795 with eight dwelling runs in 18 video games as Toronto made all of it the best way to the World Sequence, dropping in a crushing Sport 7. Let’s examine if he can parlay that right into a extra dominant common season.
