Because the Indianapolis Colts fought their method by way of a decent sport in opposition to the Atlanta Falcons in Week 10, they threw their sport plan out the window as soon as the sport reached extra time.
Within the NFL’s first sport performed in Berlin, the Colts took possession with 7:29 left within the additional interval, they usually did what everybody within the stadium knew they’d do: They gave the ball to Jonathan Taylor.
The league’s main rusher had taken over the sport late in regulation, scoring on an 83-yard run within the fourth quarter, and his dominance then spilled over into extra time. The Colts ran seven offensive performs in extra time. Six of them had been Taylor runs. Taylor ended the affair with a walk-off landing with 3:36 remaining, ending off a 244-yard, three-touchdown efficiency and including gasoline to the concept he’s a number one candidate for Most Helpful Participant.
“You may really feel it on the sidelines calling the sport when guys are rolling,” coach Shane Steichen stated. “He was rolling.”
It was an announcement sport in Taylor’s bid for MVP, however he is removed from a shoo-in.
In reality, Taylor has loads of competitors, together with from Kansas Metropolis Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. The Colts and Chiefs meet Sunday in a pivotal AFC sport in Kansas Metropolis (1 p.m., ET, CBS). As two of the prime candidates for MVP share the identical area, others shall be stating their instances elsewhere.
Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford is a +150 favourite to win MVP, in keeping with ESPN BET. The subsequent-shortest odds are on New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye at +175, adopted by Buffalo Payments quarterback Josh Allen (+550), Taylor (+750) and Mahomes (+2200).
The 37-year-old Stafford is making an attempt to turn into the oldest participant to win MVP. The 23-year-old Maye may turn into one of many youngest. Taylor is making an attempt to turn into the primary working again to win for the reason that Minnesota Vikings’ Adrian Peterson 13 years in the past. Finally, a type of gamers may make historical past.
This is a more in-depth have a look at the race with Rams reporter Sarah Barshop, Patriots reporter Mike Reiss, Payments reporter Alaina Getzenberg and Chiefs reporter Nate Taylor breaking it down, and sports activities betting analyst Pamela Maldonado offering distinctive perception.
Cause he would possibly win it: The three-game stretch in opposition to the Jaguars, Saints and 49ers from Weeks 7 by way of 10 confirmed precisely how good Stafford and the Rams’ offense have been at instances this season. In these three video games, Stafford had 13 touchdowns passes and 0 interceptions, changing into the primary quarterback in NFL historical past to throw for 4 or extra touchdowns and have zero interceptions in three consecutive video games.
In reality, his historic streak dates again seven video games. He has 22 landing passes and no picks in these video games, that are essentially the most TD passes with out an interception over a seven-game span in NFL historical past.
Cause he would possibly fall brief: For nearly as good as that three-game stretch was for Stafford, he and the Rams’ offense had a sport Sunday that wasn’t as much as their requirements, in keeping with vast receiver Davante Adams. Though the 21-19 win was in opposition to a wonderful Seahawks protection, the Rams’ working sport had nearly as many yards (119) as Stafford had passing (130). The Rams have a well-rounded offense and will rely extra on Kyren Williams and the bottom sport.
And though Stafford is taking part in among the finest soccer of his profession, he additionally has by no means actually been within the MVP dialog. Stafford is ninth in profession passing yards and passing touchdowns however has by no means completed increased than eighth in MVP voting. — Barshop
Is the +150 value proper? Stafford is priced like a pacesetter due to one stat, 27 passing touchdowns, which leads the NFL. However the remainder? He isn’t within the high three in yards or effectivity, has no dashing quantity, and the Rams are successful however not dominating. He is priced this excessive solely as a result of voters love landing quantity and since the Rams have a plausible path to a 12-win season.
His profile, although, is excessive variance. When Stafford performs effectively, he is spectacular, however when he is off or performs a reliable protection, he appears to be like mortal, as proven by his 19-of-33, 57% completion efficiency in opposition to the Eagles. In different phrases, Stafford is overpriced. His present stat traces do not justify being forward of Maye within the race, making him weak. — Maldonado
Cause he would possibly win it: With Maye taking part in a number one position, the Patriots are tied for the NFL’s finest file at 9-2 and have received eight straight video games. He leads the NFL in completion proportion (71.9%) and passing yards (2,836) and is second in passer ranking (113.2) behind solely Lamar Jackson (115.5).
In averaging 8.6 air yards per try this season, Maye is simply the second participant since ESPN started monitoring air yards in 2006 to finish 70% of his passes and common 8.5 air yards per try by way of his crew’s first 11 video games (minimal 200 go makes an attempt). The opposite participant is Peyton Manning, who did it in 2009, when he was named MVP.
Cause he would possibly fall brief: He has 5 interceptions and misplaced two fumbles, which is an MVP-caliber tempo however greater than double the full picks for Stafford (2). Diploma of issue may additionally work in opposition to him in a tiebreaker-type situation because the Patriots’ schedule was crammed with principally lower-echelon groups. That shines a brighter highlight on December video games in opposition to the Buffalo Payments (dwelling) and Baltimore Ravens (highway), presumably giving Maye much less margin for error in his case for MVP consideration. — Reiss
Is the +185 value proper? That is the one value that makes full sense. Maye has the quantity, explosive performs and, most significantly, the rookie-turnaround storyline that voters love. You may poke holes within the wins, however you possibly can’t poke holes in Maye’s manufacturing. New England is main the AFC East, however is it in the identical tier as AFC’s heavyweights? The Patriots are successful however not in a method that implies they’re constructed to run by way of Baltimore, Kansas Metropolis, Indy and even Denver in January.
The sport logs and scoring margins all say that New England is grinding, making Maye’s value honest. He in all probability closes as the favourite if the Patriots end with 12-plus wins. — Maldonado
Cause he would possibly win it: The reigning MVP is as soon as once more prepared the Payments’ offense to success along with his arm and his legs, and that was on show in his six-touchdown efficiency within the win vs. the Buccaneers on Sunday. Regardless of a corps of receiving choices that has been missing all through the season and plenty of gamers transferring out and in of the lineup resulting from harm, Allen has reminded what he’s able to. No Payments receiver is on observe for 1,000 receiving yards or has caught greater than 4 touchdowns.
Allen has 28 mixed passing and dashing touchdowns this season, his most by way of 10 video games in his profession (he had 21 by way of 10 final season).
Cause he would possibly fall brief: Turnovers and the Payments’ run sport. After setting close to impossible-to-repeat turnover numbers in 2024 (six interceptions and two fumbles), he has already thrown seven interceptions and misplaced one fumble. At instances this yr, his decision-making has not been what he displayed final season partly as a result of points with the receivers. The success of the run sport may additionally damage Allen’s case as working again James Prepare dinner III and the offensive line are placing up large numbers with the crew main the NFL in dashing yards per sport (147.6). Prepare dinner is on tempo for a profession season and is having a bigger position within the offense with 18.2 makes an attempt per sport, up from 12.9 in 2024. — Getzenberg
Is the +550 value proper? The chances do not match the true output. Allen’s numbers are good however not MVP degree. His interception rely alone removes him from the highest tier. His passing totals aren’t main something and the Payments’ inconsistency weakens his résumé additional. The value is about voter familiarity, ceiling outcomes, spotlight performs and market bias towards his finest model. I might say that is essentially the most mispriced play close to the highest of the MVP board.
His odds mirror hope slightly than manufacturing. — Maldonado
Cause he would possibly win it: Impression. Taylor arguably has extra of it than any ability participant within the NFL this season. You may choose it by his propensity for locating the tip zone, along with his 15 dashing scores main the NFL. Taylor, on common, scores a landing each 12.6 rushes.
Then, there’s his explosiveness. Taylor’s 28 runs of 10 yards or longer is second within the NFL (Miami’s De’Von Achane is No. 1 with 29) and a powerful 30.7% of his dashing makes an attempt lead to a primary down. There have been three rushes of 80 yards or longer within the NFL this season, and Taylor has two of them. He additionally leads the league with a 6.0 yards-per-carry common.
Jonathan Taylor turned the sport round with one run 🤯
🔹 78 rush yards over anticipated
🔹 81.8 yards after contact
🔹 +30.5% win likelihood added(by way of @NextGenStats) pic.twitter.com/aiBvDRscLb
— NFL+ (@NFLPlus) November 9, 2025
Cause he would possibly fall brief: For one, he is a working again. Taylor must buck some vital historical past to turn into the primary working again to win MVP since Peterson in 2012. Working backs have received simply 4 instances since 2000, and the award has more and more turn into quarterback-centric with the evolution of guidelines that cater to the passing sport.
Working backs are additionally weak to sport conditions. If the Colts path in a sport, as they did in opposition to Pittsburgh in Week 9, Taylor may wind up with one other sport the place he’s sparsely used. He had a season-low 14 carries in that sport for 45 yards. — Holder
Is the +650 value proper? Taylor’s season is outrageous. He leads in dashing yards, dashing scores and explosive runs, and is sitting at over 1,100 yards in 10 video games with 15 scores. That is elite manufacturing, little doubt.
The issue is the percentages do not really match the truth of the award. Working backs win MVP solely when the season is historic and the QB area fades. Taylor is having an elite yr however not historic sufficient (but) — not until he pushes towards 2,000 yards and 20-plus scores and Indy wins 13 video games. — Maldonado
Cause he would possibly win it: Mahomes is greater than proficient sufficient to go on a heater, one the place he leads the Chiefs to seven consecutive victories to assist the crew end with a 12-5 file. The Chiefs haven’t got a powerful working assault, so Mahomes’ arm shall be relied on closely, which may result in him main the league in landing passes.
Coming into Week 12, Mahomes is seventh within the league with 18 touchdowns. One space the place Mahomes must enhance is intermediate passes. Within the loss to the Broncos on Sunday, Mahomes accomplished solely one in every of 9 passes the place the ball went 15 or extra yards downfield, his second-worst completion proportion (11%) on these throws in his profession (minimal 5 makes an attempt).
Cause he would possibly fall brief: Mahomes has struggled extra typically than standard, particularly on the highway. In 5 video games away from Arrowhead Stadium, Mahomes has dedicated three turnovers and been sacked 10 instances.
The Chiefs not successful the AFC West for the primary time in 10 years can also be not going to be favorable for Mahomes’ possibilities. At this level, there are different proficient gamers who’re acting at a extra constant degree, together with Stafford, Taylor and Maye. — Taylor
Is the +2200 value proper? The chances match the stats, however the market is overreacting to fatigue. Mahomes shouldn’t be taking part in like an MVP, with six interceptions to go along with the TD passes. His effectivity has been inconsistent, and Kansas Metropolis has actual flaws. Mahomes is priced appropriately primarily based on manufacturing.
The issue is the market is assuming the Chiefs will not rip off a 6-1 end and leap to the 1-seed. In the event that they do, then Mahomes rockets to the highest in a single day. If they do not, his likelihood is useless.
Proper now, the stats mirror a non-MVP season, and the worth displays the Mahomes tax being eliminated, making him the one lengthy shot who can nonetheless nuke the board. — Maldonado
