NFL Week 11 predictions, fantasy sleepers, QB notes, bets

Week 11 of the 2025 NFL season is underway after the Patriots beat the Jets on Thursday night time. To prepare for the remainder of the motion, our NFL analysts have you ever coated on last-minute prep.

First, analytics author Seth Walder breaks down three stat tendencies that might be pivotal this weekend. Then fantasy author Eric Moody runs by 5 gamers who’re rostered in below 50% of ESPN leagues as of Saturday and might be began in a jam. That is adopted by NFL analyst Ben Solak’s three potential surprises, NFL analyst Matt Bowen’s key matchup to observe and sports activities betting analyst Pamela Maldonado’s favourite guess for Week 11. We additionally requested our NFL Nation reporters to reply questions on fascinating QB conditions across the league.

How can the Rams decelerate the Seahawks’ offense? Which two Buccaneers ability gamers have fantasy upside this week? May Bears quarterback Caleb Williams dominate in Minnesota? Will the Raiders’ offense keep quiet in opposition to the Cowboys on “Monday Night time Soccer”? And what is the newest on whether or not Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers will play subsequent season?

We dig into all that, beginning with an thrilling NFC West showdown.

Soar to:
Stat tendencies | Fantasy sleepers
Potential surprises | Key matchup
Guess of the week | QB questions

Walder: Three key stat tendencies that would decide Week 11 winners

How will the Rams reply to the Seahawks’ heavy offensive personnel groupings?

The Seahawks enter Week 11 with the second-most environment friendly passing offense when it comes to EPA per play (0.25), and one of many methods it succeeds is by understanding of heavier personnel groupings. That will get opponents to match with a base protection earlier than Seattle passes the ball. However the sneaky reality is that the Seahawks cross a lot as a result of they are not truly operating crew in any respect (minus-0.06 EPA per play, twenty fifth greatest). The Rams may merely dare them to run.

When the Seahawks have deployed 12 or 21 personnel this season, opponents have matched that with base 81% of the time, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. However when the Rams’ protection has confronted 12 or 21 personnel, it has run base solely 55% of the time — and it has even used dime 21% of the time. That is part of the rationale the Rams have a minus-5% cross charge over expectation in opposition to them, the third-most run-heavy cut up for any protection.

The Seahawks might be compelled into a tricky alternative: run the ball in opposition to these run-friendly appears to be like (unideal, given their weak point in that space) or cross in opposition to tougher passing personnel (which additionally might cut back effectivity).

Can the Bengals cease the Steelers’ YAC-heavy assault?

Sixty-five % of the Steelers’ passing yards this season have come after the catch, the best share within the league. For Pittsburgh’s YAC-heavy method — which will get these additional yards from the likes of DK Metcalf, to the operating backs, to the tight ends — the Bengals may be their best opponent this season. That is as a result of the Bengals are permitting a league-worst 1.7 YAC over expectation per reception, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. Issues might get ugly for Cincinnati in Pittsburgh.

Can the Texans’ Will Anderson Jr. vault himself within the Defensive Participant of the 12 months race with an enormous sport in opposition to the Titans?

I believe he might! Anderson has been fairly distinctive this season, with a 25% cross rush win charge that ranks second at edge. However his seven sacks places him 4 behind the Browns’ Myles Garrett and the Giants’ Brian Burns, the league leaders at 11.

I am not saying he could make up all the hole in a single sport, however racking up two or three sacks Sunday is inside purpose. That is as a result of Titans rookie quarterback Cam Ward is sporting a league-high 11.1% sack charge. Mix the most effective cross rushers within the league with a sack-prone quarterback, and the numbers might be big.

Moody: 5 fantasy sleepers it’s good to decide up — and might begin this week

Tre Tucker, WR, Las Vegas Raiders (43.3% rostered)

Tucker has an elite matchup in opposition to a Cowboys secondary that has been eviscerated all season. Dallas has allowed the second-most fantasy factors and probably the most touchdowns per sport to extensive receivers. Tucker is now the Raiders’ No. 1 wideout after Jakobi Meyers was traded to the Jaguars. Las Vegas’ passing offense will run by tight finish Brock Bowers, however Tucker ought to see loads of appears to be like.

Cade Otton, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (42.3% rostered)

Otton is a wonderful choice this week regardless of going through a Payments protection that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy factors per sport to tight ends. Tampa Bay’s receiver room has been decimated by accidents, pushing Otton into a bigger position with 26 targets over his previous three video games. He has additionally posted not less than 4 receptions and 50 receiving yards in 4 of his previous 5 outings. Otton might be the highest playmaker for Baker Mayfield in opposition to Buffalo.

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers (39.9% rostered)

Rodgers is a viable starter as a result of the matchup does all of the heavy lifting. Cincinnati has allowed the second-most fantasy factors per sport to quarterbacks. Rodgers hasn’t been sharp currently, scoring simply 18.5 whole fantasy factors over his previous two video games with a dismal 5.5 yards per try. Nonetheless, the Bengals’ protection has allowed the fourth-most yards per try and probably the most landing passes this season. Rodgers is nicely positioned for a bounce-back sport.

Joe Flacco, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (38.4% rostered)

Flacco has had a profession renaissance since arriving in Cincinnati, averaging 24.9 fantasy factors per sport in 4 begins. He has thrown not less than two landing passes in each Bengals look and has tried not less than 45 passes in three of 4 video games. This week, he faces a Steelers protection that’s permitting probably the most passing yards per sport within the NFL (269.4). And, in fact, Flacco is well-positioned for achievement with extensive receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins as his high targets.

Tez Johnson, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (35.1% rostered)

Johnson is a powerful begin due to his goal quantity, landing manufacturing and matchup. He has seen 20 targets and scored three touchdowns over his previous three video games. The Payments’ protection has been eviscerated over the previous month, permitting the fourth-most fantasy factors per sport to extensive receivers.

Solak: Do not be stunned if …

49ers quarterback Brock Purdy loses in his return

It isn’t that quarterback Mac Jones is best than Purdy, who’s gearing as much as return from a proper toe harm — it is that the 49ers’ protection is a lot worse than it was earlier. Since Week 7, when linebacker Fred Warner went down for the season with an ankle harm three weeks after edge rusher Nick Bosa tore an ACL, the 49ers’ protection is thirtieth in success charge, twenty eighth in factors per drive and twenty seventh in EPA per drive. The Cardinals’ loss to the Seahawks was traumatic, however they need to nonetheless be capable of transfer the ball in opposition to San Francisco even with out extensive receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. (appendicitis).

The Seahawks dominate the Rams — or vice versa

Each 7-2 groups might be 9-0 (return and have a look at these losses — all shut, and in some instances very foolish). However the Rams have not performed a protection close to Seattle’s caliber since Week 1 (solely 14 factors scored in opposition to the Texans), and the Seahawks’ offense hasn’t been compelled to play from behind a lot. Each of those groups are wonderful, and they need to present an amazing sport. However there are holes for every which may get uncovered early and infrequently by their elite opponent.

Bears quarterback Caleb Williams goes off

The Bears practically missed on a number of potential massive performs final week in opposition to the Giants in snowy Chicago. Now, Chicago takes its offense — which leads the league in explosive performs — to the dome in Minnesota, the place the Vikings are permitting the league’s highest completion share on throws 20-plus yards downfield. Williams has been teetering on the precipice of a real breakout efficiency for weeks now, and a divisional win in opposition to a defensive coordinator like Brian Flores could be the perfect spot.

Bowen: Key matchup to observe

Lions quarterback Jared Goff vs. Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio

The Eagles went zone-heavy versus Inexperienced Bay quarterback Jordan Love of their Monday night time win, enjoying zone protection on 69.2% of dropbacks. Plus, the Eagles have been in two-high protection at a 66.7% charge. Will we see the identical versus Goff and the Lions passing sport Sunday night time?

Probably, as Fangio can use his boundary security to chop or rob on inside breaking routes. And that is key when matching as much as Goff, who has a completion charge of 78.6% on throws contained in the numbers. The Eagles want solutions to remove the crossers, overs and dig routes that Goff will toss to extensive receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, amongst others.

Maldonado: My favourite guess for Week 11

UNDER 23.5 factors for Las Vegas Raiders crew whole vs. Dallas Cowboys

Las Vegas hasn’t earned a complete this excessive. The Raiders’ offense is on its final gasping breath with a damaged line, an injured Geno Smith, a bottom-three scoring whole, a passing assault that collapses below strain and a run sport that creates simply 0.66 yards earlier than contact. The Cowboys add volatility with their defensive play, however their entrance can nonetheless generate strain in opposition to the Raiders’ hobbled offensive line. Nothing in regards to the Raiders’ construction suggests effectivity, explosiveness or sustained drives. To get to 24 factors, they would wish an outlier — and this offense has hardly ever produced these.

NFL Nation: Quarterback questions

How is Matthew Stafford placing collectively his greatest season at age 37? What else might be unlocked with this Rams offense?

The Rams’ offense — particularly Stafford — has been wholesome. Regardless of lacking most of coaching camp with a again harm, Stafford has not missed a observe this season. And whereas the offensive line and extensive receiver Puka Nacua have handled some accidents, it is nothing in comparison with the time Nacua or offensive linemen missed final season. Stafford, who’s in his seventeenth season, has been sacked simply 14 occasions this yr.

As for the Rams’ offense as a complete, coach Sean McVay mentioned this offseason that the Rams could not use accidents as an excuse for inconsistency and that he wished to construct a extra versatile offense. After years of primarily counting on 11 personnel (three receivers) below McVay, Los Angeles at present leads the league in 13 personnel (three tight ends). — Sarah Barshop, Rams reporter

The place do issues stand on Aaron Rodgers enjoying one other season in Pittsburgh (or anyplace)?

Answering a query about breaking extra information after beating the Vikings earlier this season, Rodgers mentioned he is within the “twilight of my profession.”

“I used to say 5, six, seven years in the past I used to be on the again 9,” Rodgers mentioned. “I am teeing off on 18 proper now.”

Previous to Sunday’s loss to the Chargers, Rodgers had performed regular, stable soccer. Whereas the Steelers’ passing assault lacked constant deep balls, Rodgers was efficient with quick, fast throws and prolonged performs with extra mobility than he has had in recent times. Towards the Chargers, nevertheless, Rodgers seemed each little bit of his close to 42-year-old age, making it appear even much less lifelike that he might lengthen his keep in Pittsburgh.

Rodgers signed a one-year cope with the Steelers within the offseason, and the crew is working as if a one-year deal implies that he’ll be in Pittsburgh for under a single season. The Steelers declined to make any strikes to surrender vital draft capital for a large receiver on the commerce deadline partially as a result of the way forward for the quarterback place is undecided. And by protecting the majority of their draft capital, the Steelers are higher geared up to maneuver within the upcoming draft (which shall be held in Pittsburgh) for a quarterback. — Brooke Pryor, Steelers reporter

How has Joe Burrow seemed since returning to observe this week … and is it lifelike to consider he’ll return by Thanksgiving?

It is exhausting to gauge since Burrow was restricted in his first week again. Cincinnati needs to ensure it eases Burrow again into crew exercise at the beginning of his 21-day window. His greatest focus at this stage of the method is ensuring he can run and lower with none points. Till then, Joe Flacco will stay the starter. However do not downplay Burrow’s tenacity to get again.

“The way in which he approaches the sport makes him loopy,” Bengals extensive receiver Ja’Marr Chase mentioned. “How a lot he loves the sport makes him loopy. That is how a lot ardour he has behind it, and nothing’s unsuitable with that. He simply needs to win and also you want folks round you want that.” — Ben Child, Bengals reporter

How involved are the Packers about Jordan Love’s efficiency the previous two weeks?

That is working below the premise that they are involved in any respect, and coach Matt LaFleur sounds the alternative of involved. Till the previous two video games, Love had a number of the greatest numbers within the league. By way of seven video games, he had accomplished 70.9% of his passes with 13 landing throws and solely two interceptions. Prior to now two video games — low-scoring losses to the Panthers (16-13) and Eagles (10-7) — Love’s completion charge was 63% with no touchdowns and one interception.

“I do know that we have hit a tough spell with regard to scoring these final two weeks, however I believe he is completed an impressive job,” LaFleur mentioned. “We received to guarantee that he stays assured. I believe that’s paramount for each participant, and I believe he’s assured and we’re simply wanting ahead to the chance to once more, have an amazing week of observe, placing that prep in after which we in the end received to go do it on sport day.” — Rob Demovsky, Packers reporter