NFL Week 12 predictions, fantasy sleepers, QB notes, bets

Week 12 of the 2025 NFL season is underway after the Texans defeated the Payments 23-19 on Thursday night time. To prepare for the remainder of the motion, our NFL analysts have you ever coated on last-minute prep.

First, analytics author Seth Walder breaks down three stat tendencies that may very well be pivotal this weekend. Then fantasy author Eric Moody runs by means of 5 gamers who’re rostered in beneath 50% of ESPN leagues as of Saturday and may very well be began in a jam. That is adopted by NFL analyst Ben Solak’s 4 potential surprises, NFL analyst Matt Bowen’s key matchup to observe and sports activities betting analyst Pamela Maldonado’s favourite wager for Week 11. We additionally requested our NFL Nation reporters to reply questions on attention-grabbing QB conditions across the league.

Will the Raiders spoil Browns quarterback Shedeur Sanders’ first NFL begin? Does Cardinals broad receiver Michael Wilson have fantasy upside after an enormous Week 11? How large will operating again Bucky Irving’s return be for the Bucs? And what did Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold study from final week’s loss to the Rams?

We dig into all that, beginning with an thrilling showdown within the early slate.

Leap to:
Stat tendencies | Fantasy sleepers
Potential surprises | Key matchup
Wager of the week | QB questions

Walder: Three key stat tendencies that might decide Week 12 winners

Can the Chiefs cease the Colts’ play-action assault?

Play-action is on the core of the Colts’ offense; they apply it to 33% of dropbacks, second most within the NFL. And it could be a very potent lever in Week 12, as a result of the Chiefs — whereas typically a strong protection that ranks thirteenth in EPA allowed per dropback — have struggled mightily towards play-action. They rank lifeless final in EPA allowed per play-action play (0.38) and have allowed a 62% success charge towards play-action, second worst amongst all defenses.

Will the Raiders be capable to disrupt Browns quarterback Shedeur Sanders?

On the whole, the Raiders’ cross rush isn’t overly threatening. Edge rusher Maxx Crosby is a hazard to any offense, however Las Vegas ranks fifteenth in cross rush win charge (38.0%), twenty sixth in stress charge (27.7%) and twenty sixth in sack charge (5.2%). However towards Sanders in his first NFL begin, they won’t should be that nice to make an affect.

Sanders’ 2024 numbers at Colorado on this realm are fairly wild: He was beneath stress 39.2% of the time (seventeenth highest out of 129 qualifiers within the FBS) and took sacks on 7.5% of dropbacks (twenty fifth highest). However that each one occurred whereas being blitzed simply 17.9% of the time (third lowest) and with a primary stress occurring after a mean of three.1 seconds (fourth lowest).

In different phrases, he was creating his personal stress. And towards NFL defenses, he cannot do this. That might be examined in Las Vegas.

Will the Cowboys be capable to throw deep on the Eagles?

Thirty-one % of the Cowboys’ routes this season have been verticals — the best charge within the league. It has been a key a part of their profitable passing assault, because the staff is averaging 0.66 EPA when concentrating on vertical routes. (Filtering on downfield throws will typically produce extra excessive EPA outcomes since normally loads has gone proper if a downfield goal is happening, however that is nonetheless a excessive quantity.)

Sadly for Dak Prescott and the Cowboys, their energy won’t be best towards the Eagles. Philly permits a league-low EPA per play when opponents goal a vertical route on them (0.04).

Moody: 5 fantasy sleepers that you must decide up — and might begin this week

Tyjae Spears, RB, Tennessee Titans (36.2% rostered)

Spears continues to work in a committee with Tony Pollard, however his rising function within the passing sport is encouraging. He has logged at the least three receptions and averaged 10.1 fantasy factors prior to now 5 video games. That offers him a dependable ground, and he might see much more work this week due to Tennessee’s accidents at broad receiver. The Seahawks additionally enable the fourth-most receptions and fifth-most receiving yards per sport to operating backs.

Michael Wilson, WR, Arizona Cardinals (32.4% rostered)

Wilson is a powerful Week 12 begin with Marvin Harrison Jr. already dominated out due to an appendectomy. Wilson is coming off a profession day of 15 receptions for 185 yards on a 31.6% goal share towards the 49ers, clearly working as Arizona’s No. 1 receiver.

Whereas he will not see that sort of quantity each week, Wilson ought to keep closely concerned towards the Jaguars. The matchup additionally works in his favor, as Jacksonville has allowed essentially the most fantasy factors per sport to perimeter broad receivers since Week 6, which is the place Wilson strains up.

AJ Barner, TE, Seattle Seahawks (13.3% rostered)

Barner noticed a career-high 11 targets towards the Rams in Week 11, ending with 17.1 fantasy factors. He has clearly emerged as Seattle’s No. 2 possibility behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The staff additionally makes use of him on its model of the “tush push,” giving him uncommon goal-line upside for a good finish. Barner has scored at the least 11 fantasy factors in two of his previous three video games, and he is in a terrific spot towards the Titans.

Bryce Younger, QB, Carolina Panthers (10.8% rostered)

Younger hasn’t been a dependable starter this season, however he is coming off a season-high 31.8 fantasy factors towards the Falcons and eventually appears in sync with No. 1 receiver Tetairoa McMillan. In the meantime, the 49ers’ protection has been decimated by accidents and is giving up the fifth-most passing yards per sport. San Francisco additionally allowed 21.8 fantasy factors to the Cardinals’ Jacoby Brissett in Week 11, although Wilson and Greg Dortch had been his solely significant broad receiver choices.

Andrei Iosivas, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (5.6% rostered)

Broad receiver Ja’Marr Chase’s suspension opens the door for Iosivas to get extra targets towards the Patriots. He has had three video games this season with greater than 4 targets, and he has scored at the least 13 fantasy factors in two of them.

Iosivas additionally averages 13.5 yards per reception, so even restricted quantity can flip into significant fantasy manufacturing. The Patriots might be lacking key defensive gamers, and their protection permits the second-most touchdowns per sport to broad receivers. With Tee Higgins drawing the majority of defensive consideration, Iosivas is positioned to see extra favorable protection.

Solak: Do not be stunned if …

Joe Burrow wins his first sport again from a turf toe damage

Burrow is questionable to play, so that is assuming he fits up. Sure, the Bengals’ protection has been the league’s worst all season. However I assumed their movie towards the Steelers was the very best outing they’d had all season. The vitality in Cincinnati might be absurd if Burrow returns, and the Patriots’ protection is eminently extra gettable by means of the air than on the bottom. This needs to be a shootout, and one the Bengals can win.

The Cardinals upset the Jaguars

Arizona’s previous two video games have been embarrassing: 44 and 41 factors apiece surrendered to divisional opponents. However early first-quarter deficits have thrown their video games off script, and I nonetheless imagine on this Brissett-led offense towards a Jaguars protection that wants turnovers to achieve success. Arizona is 3-7, however that teaching workers is preventing for his or her jobs. I anticipate a determined residence efficiency.

The Browns win … by operating the ball towards the Raiders

Everybody is worked up to see Sanders, however the Browns’ path to offensive victory depends on an under-center, bodily operating sport. Las Vegas’ protection has holes in all places (in addition to edge rusher Maxx Crosby), and Cleveland’s operating sport has improved with the emergence of rookie operating again Quinshon Judkins. Sanders’ greatest performs this week could be handoffs.

Operating again Bucky Irving revolutionizes the Buccaneers’ offense towards the Rams

We noticed a style of what backfield juice might add to the Buccaneers’ offense final week, when Sean Tucker went nuclear towards the Payments with two touchdowns on 140 scrimmage yards. Tampa’s display screen sport hasn’t been practically as potent in Irving’s absence (foot and shoulder accidents), and too few runs have been uncorked into explosive positive factors. Tucker’s success, together with Irving’s return, might carry a much-needed straightforward button again to Tampa Bay’s offense — at a time through which it desperately wants a jolt.

Bowen: Key matchup to observe

Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts vs. Cowboys defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus

The Eagles have to get their cross sport off the bottom, and so they have a blueprint to review with the Dallas protection. Within the Week 1 matchup between each groups, Eberflus’ unit performed zone protection on a whopping 87.9% of Hurts’ dropbacks. And the Cowboys performed with zone self-discipline, too, attending to depth and squeezing throwing home windows.

Nevertheless, the Eagles ought to have solutions for Hurts this week. They’ll create open throwing voids for the quarterback, whereas additionally placing him in place to chop it free on middle-of-the-field ideas.

Maldonado: My favourite wager for Week 12

Indianapolis Colts +3.5 at Kansas Metropolis Chiefs

Indy is constructed to emphasize each one of many Chiefs’ weaknesses. The Colts like to run the ball, hit explosive performs by means of play-action and dictate early-down effectivity in a means that ought to hold this inside a area purpose. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes nonetheless makes the Chiefs a tricky beat, however this model of the staff hasn’t created broad margins.

With the Colts’ EPA profile, their improved man protection with cornerback Sauce Gardner and their capability to attain on sustained drives, +3.5 is the correct facet.

NFL Nation: QB questions

What did the Seahawks study from Sam Darnold’s four-interception efficiency towards the Rams?

Darnold pointed to 2 points: He wanted to acknowledge the Rams’ shell protection higher, and he wanted to maneuver on in his progressions versus locking onto one or two targets. On his second interception, for example, cornerback Cobie Durant jumped Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s out route as a result of Darnold’s eyes by no means left his No. 1 receiver. Darnold’s fourth interception was on an prolonged play. As coach Mike Macdonald identified, these off-platform performs have yielded a few of his greatest moments.

“You do not wish to take the playmaker out of him,” Macdonald mentioned, “however you additionally perceive after we want to have the ability to get to the subsequent play versus placing the ball in jeopardy down the sphere.” — Brady Henderson, Seahawks reporter

What ought to we anticipate to see from Shedeur Sanders this week with time to work with the primary staff?

One of many most important benefits of every week of observe reps is working by means of a sport plan tailor-made to maximise Sanders’ strengths and decrease his weaknesses. Which means utilizing ideas that spotlight his downfield accuracy but in addition discovering solutions to the blitzes that he struggled with towards the Ravens. With Maxx Crosby speeding, anticipate the Browns to maneuver the pocket a bit and permit Sanders to get the ball out of his fingers in rhythm. — Daniel Oyefusi, Browns reporter

What enhancements are the Saints anticipating to see from Tyler Shough after the bye week?

Shough started establishing chemistry with each Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson within the Panthers sport previous to the bye week, and he was in a position to open up the downfield passing sport and make performs together with his ft. Shough mentioned he is turning into extra comfy as a pacesetter with every week. The expectation is that Shough will proceed to take steps ahead in his first residence begin, particularly now that he has the boldness coming off the 17-7 win towards the Panthers. — Katherine Terrell, Saints reporter

What would be the greatest distinction within the Falcons’ sport plan with Kirk Cousins?

Anticipate extra throws to operating backs Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier and extra targets for tight finish Kyle Pitts Sr., particularly with broad receiver Drake London out. Michael Penix Jr. likes to air issues out, particularly outdoors the numbers. Cousins is extra prone to assault the center of the sphere with intermediate routes. The Falcons most likely will play much less pistol. Atlanta has aligned from the pistol on a league-high 48.8% of snaps, greater than double that of another staff this season. — Marc Raimondi, Falcons reporter