Tiers for all 30 NBA teams: Real contenders to play-in dreamers

A month into the NBA season, dividing traces are starting to take form in each conferences. Though there’s nonetheless a stunning chief within the East (the Detroit Pistons, who seem like they’ve the defensive chops to remain within the combine), the remainder of the highest 5 groups in internet score at the moment are the contenders we anticipated.

In the meantime, a backside tier has separated itself, with followers and executives alike dreaming of snagging a prime prospect in what appears to be like like a powerful 2026 NBA draft.

In between is the place the true curiosity lies as groups jockey for home-court benefit within the playoffs and to make — or keep away from — the play-in match. All season lengthy, ESPN’s Zach Kram and Kevin Pelton might be sorting the NBA’s 30 groups into tiers based mostly on their outlook for fulfillment on the finish of the common season and past.

Bounce to a tier:
The Favourite to Repeat
Legit Title Contenders
Convention Finals Celebration Crashers
Potential Contenders Caught in Impartial
The Muddled Center
Play-in Dreamers
Barren for Darryn

Tier 1: The Favourite to Repeat

Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder (13-1)

Jalen Williams hasn’t performed this season, whereas Chet Holmgren, Luguentz Dort, Alex Caruso, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe have missed not less than 4 video games apiece. The Thunder have been chilly from deep, making simply 34% of their 3-point makes an attempt to rank twenty first within the league.

And but, the 2024-25 champs are nonetheless on tempo for a 76-6 document as they mount a title protection, with a league-best plus-15.4 level differential that is even higher than their record-setting mark final season. Oklahoma Metropolis has the NBA’s finest protection by a whopping 6.6 factors per 100 possessions; Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is actually replicating final season’s stat line, which received him an MVP award; and Holmgren seems to be making an offensive leap, averaging a career-best 19.3 factors per sport on large effectivity.

Nearly the one knock towards Oklahoma Metropolis is that the Thunder have benefited from the NBA’s second-easiest schedule to this point, which has helped inflate their historic level differential. However there is no doubt that the Thunder are in a category of their very own. — Kram

Tier 2: Legit Title Contenders

Denver Nuggets (10-2)
Houston Rockets (9-3)
New York Knicks (8-4)
Cleveland Cavaliers (9-5)

Philadelphia 76ers president Daryl Morey is accountable for the NBA’s “5% rule,” which argues that groups that exceed 5% chance of a championship ought to focus totally on profitable one. These are the opposite 4 groups that clear that bar utilizing BPI — a gaggle that hasn’t actually modified because the begin of the season.

The Rockets are the closest factor to a shock, having shrugged off the lack of Fred VanVleet with the NBA’s third-best level differential to this point. Houston’s offense in all probability will not stick with it, however 2024 lottery decide Reed Sheppard is quietly serving to fill the void left by VanVleet’s harm, and the Rockets will add to their depth when Dorian Finney-Smith returns from offseason surgical procedure.

November hasn’t gone as easily as final yr for the Cavaliers. As long as Darius Garland can get wholesome, Cleveland nonetheless stands with New York because the most probably East winners, given observe document and full-strength potential.

The Nuggets, who took Oklahoma Metropolis to seven video games within the convention semifinals final postseason, seem like the largest menace to the Thunder this season. Denver may delay a possible rematch by claiming the No. 2 seed due to a stronger begin and higher depth. The Nuggets must be inspired that they are second in level differential regardless of newcomer Cam Johnson struggling by way of a capturing droop. — Pelton

Tier 3: Convention Finals Celebration Crashers

Los Angeles Lakers (10-4)
Minnesota Timberwolves (8-5)
San Antonio Spurs (9-4)
Detroit Pistons (11-2)
Atlanta Hawks (9-5)

The subsequent tier of contenders contains 5 groups which are all very sturdy on one aspect of the ball and solely middling on the opposite. In response to Cleansing the Glass, which strips out rubbish time, the Timberwolves rank fifth in offensive score whereas the Lakers rank fourth in efficient subject purpose share, though LeBron James, Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves have performed simply 21 out of a potential 42 video games. And the Pistons, Spurs and Hawks rank third, sixth and seventh in defensive score, respectively.

These groups have necessary questions they need to tackle in the event that they wish to upset a higher-ranked opponent within the playoffs, nevertheless. Can Reaves maintain his leap when James returns, and might a lineup with Doncic, Reaves and James defend sufficient to win a number of playoff rounds? Lakers opponents have the fourth-best shot high quality within the NBA, in line with GeniusIQ, with solely the lowly Kings, Nets and Pelicans faring worse.

For Minnesota, the questions circle the still-uneasy level guard spot and the state of the protection, which was the very best within the league in 2023-24 however has fallen to the center of the pack this season. Seven of the Timberwolves’ eight wins, furthermore, have come towards the worst groups within the league — Utah (twice), Sacramento (twice), Brooklyn, Charlotte and Indiana — so the Timberwolves’ scorching streak is perhaps the product of the schedule greater than their true expertise. (The eighth win got here towards Portland on opening evening.)

The Spurs and Pistons have overarching similarities as two younger contenders led by latest No. 1 picks. They face related questions on whether or not offenses with out a lot capturing can succeed within the present NBA. The Spurs have extra high-end expertise, as Victor Wembanyama is an MVP candidate and De’Aaron Fox has solely simply returned from an offseason hamstring harm. However the Pistons profit from an Jap Convention that is a lot weaker on the prime than the West, and they need to have the ability to land a excessive seed due to their scorching 11-2 begin.

Lastly, the Hawks have gone 8-2 since Trae Younger sprained his knee final month, however their present profile — seventh on protection, nineteenth on offense — is a mirror picture of what they’ve grown accustomed to with their star level guard. Can they preserve their present defensive vitality after Younger returns, whereas bettering to above-average on the offensive finish? — Kram

Tier 4: Potential Contenders Caught in Impartial

Golden State Warriors (9-6)
LA Clippers (4-9)
Orlando Magic (7-7)

We’d as effectively name this the “mea culpa” tier. These groups had been projected for greater than 49 wins by my stats-based mannequin, and none of them are monitoring that approach to this point.

Probably the most regarding begin belongs to the Clippers, who’ve proven their age in going 4-9. Bradley Beal is out for the yr following a hip fracture that required surgical procedure, 40-year-old Chris Paul has fallen out of the rotation and Kawhi Leonard has already handled an ankle harm. Clippers opponents will not sustain 38.7% 3-point capturing, however at this level, they should profit from regression simply to make the play-in.

The Magic and Warriors stand a greater probability of working their approach again into the highest six of their respective conferences, although they certainly hoped to safe home-court benefit within the first spherical. Orlando, too, has been on the mistaken aspect of opponent capturing luck, whereas Golden State has already received three consecutive video games after dropping to .500 final week. — Pelton

Tier 5: The Muddled Center

Portland Path Blazers (6-7)
Miami Warmth (7-6)
Milwaukee Bucks (8-6)
Philadelphia 76ers (7-5)
Toronto Raptors (8-5)
Boston Celtics (7-7)
Chicago Bulls (6-6)

Because the lone Western Convention crew on this middling tier, Portland would not have the top-end expertise to match the West groups in larger tiers, however the backside of the convention is shaky sufficient that the operating, urgent Path Blazers ought to make the play-in match with ease. They’re the one crew this season to beat Oklahoma Metropolis, plus they’re the one crew to beat Denver in regulation.

Many of the muddle comes within the East. With so little separation between these groups — together with Orlando and Atlanta — there’s an enormous vary in potential outcomes; virtually all of them may both land home-court benefit within the first spherical of the playoffs or miss the play-in totally. They’ve already demonstrated how streaky and inconsistent they are often: Toronto began 1-4 however has climbed to 8-5, whereas Chicago began 5-0 however has fallen to 6-6.

Milwaukee, in the meantime, is perhaps the crew on this tier most probably to outperform in a playoff setting, as Giannis Antetokounmpo will enter each sequence as the very best participant till presumably the Finals. But at the same time as position gamers corresponding to Ryan Rollins and AJ Inexperienced have stepped up, the Bucks’ supporting solid nonetheless appears missing, and the crew’s adverse level differential suggests they are much nearer to common than true competition. — Kram

Tier 6: Play-in Dreamers

Memphis Grizzlies (4-10)
New Orleans Pelicans (2-11)
Sacramento Kings (3-11)
Phoenix Suns (8-6)
Dallas Mavericks (4-10)
Charlotte Hornets (4-9)

It says one thing in regards to the muddled center within the East (and lots in regards to the steep divide after the convention’s prime 12) that 5 of the six groups on this tier are out West. In fact, the Pelicans needed to slot someplace, and it is arduous to place a crew with out its personal draft decide within the final tier though New Orleans’ efficiency to this point has merited that spot.

The Hornets have been extra aggressive than their 4-9 document would point out, with a minus-3.3 level differential that will rank tenth within the West. Barring accidents above them, nevertheless, Charlotte will most probably head instantly again to the lottery.

That leaves 4 West groups, not less than one in every of which is able to make the postseason by default. The Mavericks and Grizzlies had larger aspirations getting into the yr, which have been torpedoed by sluggish begins amid issues brought on by lately fired GM Nico Harrison in Dallas and star level guard Ja Morant’s unhappiness in Memphis. Each are contenders to go the opposite course and embrace a run at a excessive lottery decide. That is a tougher promote in Sacramento, the place the thrill of the “Beam Crew” returning to the playoffs in 2022-23 is changing into an more and more distant reminiscence.

The most effective vibes on this tier, surprisingly, belong to the Suns. With Devin Booker enjoying at an All-NBA degree and Collin Gillespie filling in effectively for the injured Jalen Inexperienced, Phoenix is making an early case for match over the expertise misplaced when Durant was traded and Bradley Beal purchased out final summer time. — Pelton

Tier 7: Barren for Darryn

Utah Jazz (5-8)
Washington Wizards (1-12)
Brooklyn Nets (2-11)
Indiana Pacers (1-12)

Because the lottery demonstrated final season, when the 2 worst groups within the league — Utah and Washington — landed solely the No. 5 and 6 picks, there is no longer a assure {that a} horrible document will result in a franchise-altering famous person within the draft. However upfront of a loaded 2026 draft that includes potential superstars Darryn Peterson, AJ Dybantsa and Cameron Boozer, this quartet of groups is doing its finest to extend the chances of profitable a prime decide.

That was the plan all alongside for Utah, Washington and Brooklyn, whereas Indiana has joined the look-ahead-to-the-lottery get together after a succession of disastrous accidents buried the Pacers within the standings. The Jazz, Wizards and Nets are all aiming to land the cornerstone who can pave the best way again to competition after a protracted rebuild, whereas the Pacers now have the prospect to nab a younger co-star for Tyrese Haliburton as soon as the All-NBA guard returns from a torn Achilles.

Whereas Utah has 5 wins — greater than the remainder of the groups on this tier mixed — and is presently in competition for the West’s final play-in spot, the Jazz owe a top-eight-protected decide to Oklahoma Metropolis this season. So the Jazz can have each incentive to lose sufficient video games the remainder of the best way to make sure that decide stays in Utah. — Kram