Making robust lineup choices every week will be the most difficult a part of the fantasy soccer course of. While you’re torn between two comparable gamers and easily do not know which one to start out, begin the participant with the superior matchup.
Ah, however precisely how does one decide the perfect (and worst) weekly matchups?
Our matchup rankings present a schedule-independent technique to judge positional matchups every week, rating all 32 opposing defenses so as of most to least favorable for opposing gamers in any respect 4 ability positions (quarterback, working again, extensive receiver and tight finish). As an alternative of relying upon season totals, we calibrate points-allowed information to point out how every protection fared relative to the problem of the schedule it has confronted. This offers a fairer method to judging the standard of particular person matchups.
“Adj. FPA,” or adjusted fantasy factors allowed, displays how far above or under gamers’ weekly PPR fantasy level averages that protection held opponents at that place. A constructive quantity implies that the matchup is favorable; a unfavorable quantity means it is unfavorable. Additionally do not forget that groups usually use a number of working backs and extensive receivers in a sport, and these plus/minus averages cowl all of a group’s personnel at that place.
Lastly, a caveat: Matchups are solely one ingredient in my rankings method. Not each favorable matchup ought to be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup prevented. If you’d like my — and the ESPN fantasy employees’s — most full supply for whom to start out and sit every week, seek the advice of our weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Matchups spotlight: Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (versus New York Giants). He accomplished a personal-worst 37.8% of his go makes an attempt on Monday night time, however he additionally confronted considered one of his hardest matchups all 12 months, because the opposing Philadelphia Eagles are sixth hardest in opposition to the place over the previous 5 weeks (minus-4.4 Adjusted FPA), and fourth hardest for the season (minus-2.2). In opposition to the Giants, Goff ought to rebound nearer to the shape that noticed him common 18.3 fantasy factors whereas totaling 11 touchdowns in comparison with one interception over his earlier 5 video games. Over their previous 5 video games, the Giants have not intercepted a go, they usually’ve afforded quarterbacks probably the most fantasy factors per sport (25.9).
Others to love: Drake Maye, New England Patriots (at Cincinnati Bengals); Jacoby Brissett, Arizona Cardinals (versus Jacksonville Jaguars).
Matchup to keep away from: Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (versus Eagles). He is going from going through the lowly Las Vegas Raiders, in opposition to whom he accomplished 75.8% of his go makes an attempt for 4 touchdowns, to drawing the aforementioned Eagles matchup. Prescott is one other “prove-it” matchup, akin to Daniel Jones’ in opposition to the Falcons in Week 10 wherein Jones scored a middling 15.5 fantasy factors, as it is a essential sport so far as rallying his Cowboys again into the playoff, and maybe even NFC East, image. The issue, nonetheless, is that the Eagles’ protection seems excellent for the reason that deadline acquisition of Jaelan Phillips, limiting Jordan Love and Goff to a mixed 19.94 fantasy factors the previous two weeks.
Working backs
Matchups spotlight: TreVeyon Henderson, Patriots (at Bengals). He has thrived since his set up because the Patriots’ beginning working again coming into Week 9, scoring a sixth-best-among-all-players 73.0 fantasy factors. To assume, Henderson solely received the nod then as a result of Rhamondre Stevenson’s toe harm. Even when Stevenson returns to motion this week, in all chance as a goal-line/change-of-pace again, Henderson is an efficient must-start going through this matchup. The Bengals have surrendered 34.1 fantasy factors per sport to working backs, not solely the league’s most in 2025, however the second-highest single season fee this century (2008 Denver Broncos, 34.9).
Others to love: Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints (versus Falcons); Woody Marks, Houston Texans (versus Buffalo Payments, “Thursday Evening Soccer”).
Matchup to keep away from: Chase Brown, Bengals (versus Patriots). Throughout the sphere, Brown is in a more durable spot this week, due each to what Ja’Marr Chase’s suspension does to decrease the Bengals’ offensive efficiency, in addition to the matchup itself. Whereas Brown’s 22 targets within the Bengals’ previous two video games, tied for the positional lead over that three-week span, lessens fear of unfavorable sport script, the Patriots have been mighty good in opposition to the run all 12 months. For the season, they’re first in opposition to working backs particularly in dashing yards allowed per sport (58.6) and yards per dashing try (0.40), and second in fantasy factors allowed per sport (16.7) and adjusted FPTA (minus-5.0).
Huge receivers
Matchups spotlight: Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers (at San Francisco 49ers). He is recent off a career-best, 33.0 fantasy level efficiency in opposition to the Atlanta Falcons, and over the previous 5 weeks, he has a 26.8% goal fee and 7 purple zone targets. That is the type of utilization that may result in large video games when quarterback Bryce Younger is acting at his greatest, and/or when the matchup is true, each of which might be the case this week. The mounting variety of accidents has severely depleted the 49ers’ go protection, to the purpose that they are the perfect extensive receiver matchup over the previous 5 weeks (+9.5 adjusted FPA). 4 completely different extensive receivers have scored 15-plus fantasy factors in opposition to the 49ers previously two weeks alone, and 9 have scored in double digits over the previous 4 weeks.
Others to love: Rome Odunze, Chicago Bears (versus Pittsburgh Steelers); DK Metcalf, Steelers (at Bears).
Matchup to keep away from: Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts (at Kansas Metropolis Chiefs). His two-target, 3.9 fantasy-point Week 10, coupled with Alec Pierce’s large sport (18.4 factors, 7 targets), within the Colts’ final sport earlier than the bye casts many doubts upon his fantasy utility going through this matchup. Daniel Jones has a transparent desire for Tyler Warren within the purple zone, and Pierce is the higher choice on deep throws. That leaves Pittman combating for quantity largely lined up throughout from Chiefs cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson, two of the higher gamers in protection this season (minus-3.7 and minus-7.5 goal EPA, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats). The Chiefs have not afforded a 20-point sport to a large receiver since Week 1, they usually’ve surrendered solely eight double-digit scores to the place of their previous 9 video games.
Tight ends
Matchups spotlight: Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at Los Angeles Rams). He has once more emerged as a fantasy-relevant tight finish as a result of accidents to different Buccaneers receivers, posting a 21.0% goal share previously seven weeks which ranks sixth greatest on the place, and 11.0 fantasy factors per sport in that very same time span. In the meantime, if there is a weak spot within the Rams’ protection, it is conserving opposing tight ends in verify. 5 of their previous seven video games have seen one rating in extra of 10 fantasy factors, together with Jake Tonges (17.1, Week 5), Juwan Johnson (12.1, Week 9) and AJ Barner (17.1, Week 11).
Matchup to keep away from: Harold Fannin Jr., Cleveland Browns (at Raiders). He scored simply 4.6 fantasy factors, his worst output since Week 4, on 5 targets in Week 11, and he’ll seemingly once more be working with untested rookie quarterback Shedeur Sanders. Fannin can also be going through a Raiders protection that’s sturdy in a single regard, containing opposing tight ends. For the season, the Raiders have held the place to the fourth-fewest fantasy factors per sport (9.6), fifth-fewest adjusted FPA (minus-3.0) and ninth-fewest factors per goal (1.71).
