With two weeks left within the common season, the playoff image is coming into focus. At this level, the highest six groups within the rankings look like close to locks. The ACC and the Group of 5 will provide champions, too, whether or not the Massive Ten likes it or not. The winner of a Week 13 showdown between USC and Oregon ought to be on observe for a bid, and it is exhausting to think about, at this level, that Notre Dame is omitted, given its No. 9 rating with simply lowly Syracuse and Stanford left on the schedule.
Add all of it up, and that is 10 of the 12 playoff spots already written in — nicely, if not in ink, a minimum of a very darkish pencil.
That leaves the groups nonetheless lurking on the periphery — Alabama, Oklahoma, Utah, Vanderbilt, BYU and Miami, chief amongst them — hoping every week that the committee will dig deep, concentrate on their strengths, put aside the occasional hiccups and worth their ever-evolving résumés.
And every week, the committee simply updates final week’s rankings with a number of small tweaks and is again on the airport in time to seize a Cinnabon earlier than their flight.
So, sure, there are some nerves, some frustration, and a superb little bit of anger as we head towards the end line of the 2025 season.
Would you imagine that Alabama, Oregon and Notre Dame have mixed for 5 wins towards different ranked groups?
It is true.
Alabama has overwhelmed No. 4 Georgia, No. 14 Vanderbilt, No. 20 Tennessee and No. 22 Missouri.
Notre Dame has overwhelmed … nicely, solely No. 15 USC.
And Oregon has an enormous win towards … sorry, it simply says “Error 404: Web page Not Discovered.”
And but, the Tide test in at No. 10 this week, barely on the perimeter of the playoff, behind each the Geese and the Irish.
Why? As a result of Alabama had the temerity to lose a sport final week by two factors — a sport during which it missed a discipline aim try on a controversial tipped ball, almost doubled Oklahoma’s yardage, and, based mostly on web success charges, was clearly the unluckiest group within the nation.
📊🏈DID WE REALLY GET BEAT THAT BAD?
NET SUCCESS RATES IN WEEK 12By Request:
FIRST HALF NET SUCCESS RATE: South Carolina +.168
SECOND HALF NET SUCCESS RATE: Texas A&M +.391 pic.twitter.com/x1JWyTNlpS— parker fleming (@statsowar) November 17, 2025
Now, manner again after we first launched the thought of the choice committee in 2014, one of many large differentiations from extra conventional rankings, just like the AP ballot, was that this new group would view every week with contemporary eyes. In contrast to these lazy AP voters or whichever intern drew the brief straw and needed to submit a coach’s poll for the Coaches Ballot, the committee would not merely take final week’s rankings and regulate based mostly on who gained or misplaced their most up-to-date video games. The underlying knowledge modified every week, so the committee was obliged to reevaluate, too. Groups misplaced video games after they performed nicely and gained video games after they performed poorly. What as soon as appeared like an enormous win (Penn State?) now seems much less spectacular, and what as soon as felt like a foul loss (SMU?) is an excusable hole on the résumé. The committee, in its infinite knowledge, would account for all that by viewing every set of rankings as an entirely new endeavor.
Twelve years later, this committee appears to have determined that is manner an excessive amount of effort and appears to have adopted the outdated AP ballot course of.
Alabama misplaced. It should be punished, and dropping six spots within the rankings is the tough equal of the pilot at ATL explaining it’s going to simply be one other 20 minutes or so earlier than a gate opens up. Everybody is aware of it is not true, however the hope is the quantity appears cheap sufficient to keep away from anybody getting too upset.
Effectively, that type of remedy could be OK for the likes of Miami or Virginia, however that is Alabama we’re speaking about. Put some respect on the Tide’s title. Their 5 wins vs. SP+ top-40 opponents is greater than anybody besides Texas A&M. Their 4 wins vs. ranked foes is greater than Ole Miss, Oregon and Notre Dame mixed. They’ve overwhelmed the No. 4 group within the nation head-to-head — arguably the most effective win for any group this season.
And but, right here we’re, treating Alabama as if it has been enjoying an ACC schedule this entire time. (By no means thoughts that the Tide misplaced to an ACC group. The committee has given Week 1 the “Everlasting Sunshine” remedy. Sorry, Miami.)
The entire level of the committee — the explanation we’re not utilizing computer systems or the AP ballot or letting that manatee at Sea World who at all times picks the winner of the Vacation Bowl determine on the playoff groups — is so there’s some nuance to this course of.
Alabama at No. 10 exhibits there is not any context being utilized. Take final week’s rankings. Minimize and paste and drop anybody who misplaced six spots. Now nobody on the committee has to fret about lacking a dinner reservation on a Tuesday night time.
Two weeks in the past, Memphis was the committee’s favored Group of 5 group. The Tigers promptly misplaced to Tulane (and once more to East Carolina final week.)
Final week, the nod went to South Florida. The Bulls then instantly misplaced to Navy.
This week, the committee had an opportunity to maneuver away from courting the American and increase its horizons. It did not.
The case for Tulane is fairly easy. The Inexperienced Wave has a Energy 4 win. Positive, it is towards Duke, a group that additionally misplaced to UConn, but it surely’s a Energy 4 win however. Tulane additionally beat Memphis and East Carolina. That is rarified air, shared solely with the likes of UAB and NC State. It is a group with an actual résumé.
However the factor is, James Madison did not select its schedule. It faces the groups in its league, and in 2025, the Solar Belt is not pretty much as good.
So what? Whereas Tulane has struggled with the likes of Military and South Alabama, JMU has overwhelmed its seven convention foes by a mean of 24 factors. Of JMU’s 9 wins, solely Georgia State got here by fewer than 10 factors. Previously month, the Dukes have gained all their 4 video games by a mixed rating of 208-80. No, they have not performed nice competitors, however they’re dominating the groups they do face. High quality of wins is a metric groups management. Power of schedule just isn’t.
3. Open dates
Two weeks in the past, Georgia Tech took the week off, presumably, as a result of the Ramblin’ Wreck was caught in visitors on I-75, and in some way, regardless of being the uncommon ACC group that did not embarrass itself in Week 11, the Yellow Jackets had been leapfrogged by Miami.
Final week, it was Vanderbilt that had per week off, presumably to wash glitter and scorching sauce off the sector after renting out FirstBank Stadium to a bachelorette occasion. What occurred? The Commodores, too, had been jumped within the rankings by Miami.
So, to sum up: Miami’s head-to-head win over Notre Dame didn’t matter to the committee, however in contrast the Canes to a clean void, and the committee barely favors Miami.
Let’s do a fast blind résumé right here.
Workforce A: Greatest win vs. SP+ No. 20, subsequent vs. No. 30. Losses to SP+ Nos. 12 and 13 by a mixed 29 factors. No. 14 power of file.
Workforce B: Greatest win vs. SP+ No. 37, subsequent vs. No. 51. Losses to SP+ Nos. 3 and 17 by a mixed 27 factors. No. 18 power of file.
Who’s higher?
Each have comprehensible losses. Neither has an elite win, however clearly Workforce A has overwhelmed higher groups. Neither precisely seems like playoff materials in the mean time, however Workforce A, for what it is price, nonetheless has a monster alternative on the horizon.
OK, you have most likely guessed Workforce A is Michigan. Workforce B is Utah, ranked six spots increased.
If something, Utah’s spot within the rankings is confounding — forward of Miami, USC and Vanderbilt, all with markedly higher wins. However the frustration for the Wolverines is that they’ve a shot to knock off Ohio State once more this yr, and even when they do, the top outcome most likely will look similar to 2024. The Buckeyes will nonetheless cruise into the playoff, and Michigan — regardless of being much better than a yr in the past — does not have a lot of a shot.
If Michigan was hovering across the No. 12 or 13 spot, there is a path — with a win over Ohio State — to a playoff berth. At 18? Unlikely, even when they beat the Buckeyes by 40. As an alternative, all they will be left with is a visit to the Music Metropolis Bowl and a protracted offseason, sipping on the tears of Ohio State followers in all places. It is hardly honest.
5. The committee
We’ll by no means fairly know what’s mentioned within the committee room, however this week, we think about, because the hours ticked by, somebody spoke up and mentioned, “Effectively, we have now to incorporate Virginia, so put them at 19, after which let’s simply draw names from a hat.”
Critically, have a look at the underside of those rankings. Who’s good? Tennessee? The Vols’ finest win was a loss to Georgia. Illinois? Indiana beat Illinois so badly that the descendants of the 1916 Cumberland group despatched condolence playing cards. Houston was housed by West Virginia lower than three weeks in the past. Missouri is like “Felony Minds.” The Tigers pop up on the rankings, and your first thought is … “That is nonetheless on? Did not Beau Pribula retire like six years in the past?”
So, after spending a lot time berating the committee for its limitless lack of creativity and nuance, it is solely honest we embody these people within the Anger Index. Discovering 25 groups price rating isn’t any simple activity. However what they name the one who graduates final in medical college? Physician.
Additionally offended this week: East Carolina Pirates (7-3, unranked), North Texas Imply Inexperienced (9-1, unranked), Notre Dame Combating Irish (8-2, No. 9 and actually wanting everybody to cease mentioning that Miami sport), Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (9-1, No. 16 behind seven two-loss groups), Lane Kiffin’s realtor. Make up your thoughts already, Lane!
