Week 13 of the school soccer season is the place the board stops caring about crew names and begins revealing the worth to anybody disciplined (or courageous) sufficient to take a look at the ugly corners.
Final week was a clear sweep on the cardboard with numbers and outcomes lining up the way in which they had been speculated to.
This week would not include the shine of ranked matchups or brand-heavy groups, and that is OK. One of the best edges by no means present up within the video games everybody desires to speak about. Look within the shadows, within the totals and crew profiles that the market would reasonably scroll previous. That is the place these three performs come from.
Oh boy.
Decide: Pitt crew whole UNDER 30.5 (-110)
Pitt averages greater than 73 performs per sport — one of many highest marks within the nation — but manages solely 5.5 yards per play, which is exterior the highest 60 nationally. That’s the profile of a quantity offense. They want reps, rhythm and time to attain. While you want all three on the street in opposition to a crew that controls tempo the way in which Georgia Tech does, your ceiling shrinks.
Georgia Tech forces opponents into slower fights by working the ball nicely and profitable possession. They’re tied fourth in yards per play, and that type prevents Pitt from working its typical script. Take away tempo, and a fragile offense exhibits its limits. Pitt turns into depending on Mason Heintschel to ship into tight protection, and people home windows disappear faster in opposition to a protection with actual velocity.
Pitt can transfer the ball, however asking them to succeed in 31 factors in a sport the place possessions fall under their season common and effectivity stays impartial creates a slender scoring path. The whole lot on this matchup leans towards one aspect staying beneath, and for Pitt, that quantity is 30.5.
Decide: Cal crew whole OVER 24.5 (Even)
Cal wants Stanford’s protection to maintain being Stanford’s protection. If that occurs, then this matchup palms Cal brief fields and purple zone appears on a platter.
Once I handicap a crew whole, I begin with: what does the opposing protection enable by default? The Cardinal have given up 50 purple zone journeys, third-most within the FBS. That is past a foul stretch, that is simply failure. Permitting that many appears at landing shouldn’t be an accident. Stanford’s protection cannot sort out, cannot cowl and may’t get off the sector.
Offenses are getting downfield as a result of Stanford sits 121st in protection. Cal scores when its passing sport finds leverage, and in opposition to this secondary, leverage is handed out at no cost. When your corners lose on the line and your linebackers cannot carry something vertical, even a modest offense turns environment friendly, and effectivity is all it’s worthwhile to get to 27. Cal clears as a result of Stanford hasn’t stopped anybody all 12 months.
Decide: Nevada crew whole UNDER 16.5 (-110)
There have been two totals watching me for this sport, the Nevada crew whole beneath at -110 and the complete sport beneath 40.5 however priced at -120. Each look playable on paper, however one is extra structurally sound. Anticipating Nevada to be a dud has extra weight.
Nevada has a 37% landing fee contained in the purple zone, third-lowest within the nation, forward of Maryland Terrapins and Massachusetts Minutemen. You may’t faux that or scheme round it, it is simply who Nevada is. The crew can transfer the ball simply sufficient to get contained in the 20 however then all of it collapses: safety, accuracy and play design. Towards Wyoming’s protection, which has allowed simply 15 purple zone touchdowns all season, that ending downside will get magnified.
Throw tempo into the equation at 60 performs per sport, one of many lowest marks in soccer, and the Wolf Pack will probably be fortunate to see 9 possessions. Sounds wild, however you want some form of effectivity to even hit 17 in a low-possession sport and Nevada merely would not have it.
Why not the complete sport beneath? That quantity requires cooperation from Wyoming’s offense not ending drives and that is the place the danger is. Wyoming can stumble its approach to 24 or possibly even 27, however Nevada not discovering 17 is the a part of the sport I belief extra.
